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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0489 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 6 19:00:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1576 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
Mesoscale Discussion 1576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061709Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms/clusters. Widespread storm organization is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed initial diurnal thunderstorm activity was beginning to increase in coverage across portions of the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. Area surface observations show strong heating along a weak front with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F across a very moist air mass. Modest mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) amid the warm and moist air mass will support strong buoyancy (MUCAPE ~3000 J/kg). Continued heating and weak ascent from the front and a subtle trough aloft will allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. Despite the large buoyancy, deep-layer shear is minimal, with most of the region observing less than 20 kt. This strongly suggests a pulse multi-cellular storm mode. Some clustering/upscale growth is possible with time as individual outflows consolidate. However, this appears limited to areas with locally greater storm coverage, and broader storm organization appears very unlikely. This will favor only sporadic stronger downdraft pulses. Given this and modest lapse rates aloft, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Conditions will continue to be monitored, but the limited storm/severe coverage suggests a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG... LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 38269381 38819201 40548820 41758662 41678534 40748472 39498475 37638699 36718887 36109124 35999289 36079367 38269381 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 14:37:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 15:22:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 14:37:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 15:22:23 GMT

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more