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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS. At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops off the Front Range. Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening with damaging winds likely. ...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast... As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

903
ABPZ20 KNHC 061709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
An area of low pressure has become a little better defined about
400 miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. However,
the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. This
system could still become a short-lived tropical depression before
it moves into unfavorable environmental conditions on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

282
ABNT20 KNHC 061708
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Tropical Depression Chantal, located inland over eastern North
Carolina. The next advisory on Chantal will be issued by the
Weather Prediction Center at 5 pm EDT.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated breezy and dry conditions are expected today across the interior California mountains/Mojave desert as well as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, no significant, broad scale fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS today. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more