SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 1582

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...north-central North Carolina into far southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062044Z - 062215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado or strong wind gust will remain possible with the convection near the remnant core of TD Chantal. DISCUSSION...Afternoon imagery shows the remnants of TD Chantal located across portions of north-central NC near 34.4 deg N 79.2 deg W. Within the broader precip shield, a few deeper convective towers have remained strong with occasional cyclonic rotation observed. Enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH near 200 m2/s2) near the remnant center will remain strong enough to support occasional low-level mesocyclones with this convection. Despite weak buoyancy (MLCAPE (~500 J/kg) the moist surface environment and some deeper storms may remain capable of a brief tornado two and damaging gust into this evening. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, and the interaction of the circulation with higher terrain to the west should slowly limit the threat tonight. ..Lyons.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35307970 35618006 36217998 36867950 36907877 36587833 36477861 36077903 35617917 35317918 35307970 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC MD 1581

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062026Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a few supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts and small hail this afternoon/evening. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2020 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed convection was strengthening across portions of Maine. As temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed with dewpoints in the 60s. While not overly strong, this buoyancy should continue to support occasional stronger updrafts with convection across the region. Deep-layer shear is supportive of storm organization with the KCBW VAD showing an elongated hodograph and 30-45 kt of bulk shear. Weak mid-level rotation has already been observed and the environment suggests a few supercell/organized multi cell structures are possible. With poor lapse rates and relatively limited buoyancy, damaging gusts still appear to be the primary risk. However, some small hail and a brief tornado are possible with the stronger rotating storms. HRRR guidance and observations suggests additional storm development/intensification is plausible this afternoon with more storms developing/moving in from eastern Canada this evening. While some severe risk is possible, confidence in severe coverage is low owing to weak forcing and limited buoyancy. Convective trends are being monitored, but a WW is currently unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45327107 47017003 47546872 46806725 45486706 44986795 44606972 44637058 45327107 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC MD 1580

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061918Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms emanating off the southern Rockies will pose an isolated severe wind/hail threat through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development within the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento mountains is evident in recent GOES imagery. Weak mid-level flow over the region will likely result in slow storm propagation off the higher terrain, but as this occurs storms will eventually move into an unseasonably moist air mass downstream (dewpoint values in the 75th-90th percentile for early July). This moisture is contributing to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE that should promote thunderstorm maintenance, and possibly intensification, through late evening. A combination of semi-discrete cells and propagating clusters is expected with an attendant threat for isolated large hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) and sporadic severe wind gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated given the modest kinematic environment, which should preclude the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33030448 32680468 32490487 32390508 32420536 32660576 32930586 33280589 35630566 36190559 36640546 36800533 36890500 36930461 36830414 36690345 36310317 36060313 33030448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC MD 1578

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1578 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061838Z - 062115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the higher terrain of the central Rockies will spread east and intensify through the afternoon. As this occurs, the threat for severe winds, and possibly large hail, will increase. Watch issuance is probable later this afternoon as thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data shows a gradual uptick in convection within the higher terrain of central to northern CO and far southern WY as daytime heating drives increasing orographic ascent within a weakly capped air mass. This initial activity is expected to spread east into the High Plains over the coming hours given 30-40 knot westerly flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Storm intensification is expected as convection overspreads a relatively moist low-level air mass (dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 50s downstream) and as lingering inhibition is removed via deepening boundary-layer heating/mixing. Across southeast WY and western NE, slightly stronger zonal flow aloft coupled with weak easterly low-level winds should promote adequate deep-layer shear for a couple of supercells with an attendant large hail risk (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter). The tornado threat may also be locally greatest across this region due to augmented low-level shear/SRH on the immediate cool side of a residual outflow boundary emanating out of central NE. Further south across CO, observed dewpoint depressions and short-term forecast soundings suggest LCL heights should approach 2.5 to 3 km as temperatures warm into the upper 80s, which will promote strong downdraft evaporative cooling and accelerations as well as rapid cold pool production. Strong to severe downburst winds and sporadic large hail appear likely within initially discrete cells moving off the terrain and/or developing within the DCVZ, but upscale growth into organized clusters is anticipated later this afternoon/evening with a more widespread severe wind risk (with gusts possibly as high as 70-80 mph). Watch issuance is probable as these threats begin to emerge in the coming hours. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40170514 41190520 41680493 42020458 42360407 42430360 42350311 41860264 41360256 40730251 40160253 39340260 39050292 38330454 38280476 38310502 38560514 40170514 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 1579

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1579 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Central to southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061857Z - 062100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms associated with a residual MCS will likely intensify to severe limits at times through the afternoon. Large hail and sporadic severe winds are possible, but the threat from this cluster of storms will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a residual MCS across central NE has shown signs of re-intensification over the past hour based on lightning data, cloud-top temperatures, and echo top trends. Additionally, MRMS vertically integrated ice values are beginning to suggest that severe hail is possible with a few of the deeper/stronger cores. This intensification is likely being driven by increasing buoyancy associated with daytime heating of a moist air mass immediately downstream of the decaying MCS/outflow boundary. Latest VWP data and RAP mesoanalyses suggest that bulk shear over the region is somewhat modest (around 20-25 knots) over central NE with decreasing mid-level flow with southward extent into the reservoir of higher MLCAPE. Consequently, continued south/southeastward propagation/development of somewhat transient deeper convective cores is anticipated through peak heating, but confidence is low that well-organized/intense MCS development is imminent. Regardless, deeper cores behind the outflow boundary will likely pose a threat of large hail and sporadic strong to severe downburst winds. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, but watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41080112 41080037 41129994 41379928 41719889 41929862 41949824 41819780 41399745 40919743 40459758 40069788 39899853 39789938 39799998 39860040 39990082 40140109 40400122 40730125 40890126 41080112 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 Status Reports

1 month 1 week ago
WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 062140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-062140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-062140- WY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 Status Reports

1 month 1 week ago
WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 062140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-062140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-062140- WY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 Status Reports

1 month 1 week ago
WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 062140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-062140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-062140- WY Read more