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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. ...KS/NE/SD/IA... A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest. This should yield an effective split flow regime over the northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night. Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather uncertain. ...ND and northwest MN... Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night. Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...East... A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected hazard in this regime. Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent. But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-082040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- Read more

MD 1604 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081657Z - 081900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a severe hail and wind risk across part of New England this afternoon. Storm coverage is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertically integrated liquid show steady intensification of weak thunderstorms across southern NY ahead of a diffuse cold front. Further growth of these cells is expected over the next several hours as temperatures continue to warm and bolster MLCAPE through late afternoon. Upstream VWPs recently sampled 20-35 knot mid-level winds associated with a weak impulse approaching the New England region. The arrival of this perturbation through peak heating will help elongate hodographs and promote some increase in storm organization/longevity, and may support a weak supercell or two. Consequently, some threat for severe hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) may be emerging if discrete modes can be maintained. Otherwise, the primary hazard will remain strong to severe downburst winds, especially if more organized clustering can occur. In general, nebulous forcing for ascent will likely limit overall storm coverage and should negate the need for a watch, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41267225 41137343 41257386 41427424 42087413 42317369 42497284 42717078 42437053 42107038 41937038 41737033 41597040 41527058 41267225 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1603 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081634Z - 081830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the Blue Ridge Mountains is expected in the next 1-2 hours. The threat for strong to severe winds will increase through the afternoon hours as storms spread east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Watch issuance is likely to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus within the central to southern Appalachians as temperatures continue to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s within a very moist air mass (dewpoints and PWAT values across the region are near or above the 90th percentile for mid-July). As temperatures continue to warm into the low to mid 90s over the next few hours, lingering inhibition will erode and support increasing probability for thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge Mountains and/or along a weak surface pressure trough in the lee of the terrain. Additional heating will also support SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000-3000 J/kg as well as steepening near-surface lapse rates. This thermodynamic environment will promote strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe downburst winds. Modest flow aloft will generally limit deep-layer shear magnitudes and the potential for well-organized convection, but a few long-lived clusters or convective bands seem plausible, especially considering the weak capping that should promote scattered thunderstorm development. The wind threat should peak by late afternoon when thermodynamic profiles will be optimized and as convection reaches maturity along the I-95 corridor. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38627916 40017720 41327521 41487474 41457429 41107383 40727373 40287383 37077842 37057864 37127886 37887936 38137945 38367942 38627916 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0496 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0496 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by the 12Z HREF max wind speed field. ...Northern Great Plains... Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night. ...Interior Northwest... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to southern/central/eastern MT. ...Lower MI... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy. ..Grams.. 07/08/2025 Read more