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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should continue this evening across parts of the central/southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... Bands of loosely organized convection will continue to spread eastward across the DelMarVa Peninsula and southeast VA/northeast NC vicinity over the next couple of hours this evening. A sufficiently moist and unstable airmass should support occasional severe/damaging winds with this activity until it moves offshore or eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Central/Southern Plains... Widely spaced strong to severe thunderstorms are present this evening across the central/southern Plains, generally along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary extending across KS into the Ozarks. Large-scale forcing across these regions will tend to remain weak on the northeast periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest. But, multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid in thunderstorm maintenance for several more hours this evening given the presence of moderate to strong instability and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated severe winds and hail may occur with loosely organized multicells and occasional supercells. But, the overall severe threat still appears too unfocused/widely spaced to include greater severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should continue this evening across parts of the central/southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... Bands of loosely organized convection will continue to spread eastward across the DelMarVa Peninsula and southeast VA/northeast NC vicinity over the next couple of hours this evening. A sufficiently moist and unstable airmass should support occasional severe/damaging winds with this activity until it moves offshore or eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Central/Southern Plains... Widely spaced strong to severe thunderstorms are present this evening across the central/southern Plains, generally along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary extending across KS into the Ozarks. Large-scale forcing across these regions will tend to remain weak on the northeast periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest. But, multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid in thunderstorm maintenance for several more hours this evening given the presence of moderate to strong instability and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated severe winds and hail may occur with loosely organized multicells and occasional supercells. But, the overall severe threat still appears too unfocused/widely spaced to include greater severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 07/09/2025 Read more

MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496... Valid 082246Z - 090045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across eastern and southern portions of ww496 over the next several hours. Damaging winds are the primary concern. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized band of strong-severe thunderstorms is spreading across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. This activity is propagating across an instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Surface temperatures are holding near 90F along the coast and modest westerly flow should encourage a robust squall line to spread offshore over the next several hours. Damaging winds can be expected with this convection. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37007963 41137559 41137271 36997691 37007963 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1609 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082229Z - 090030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve into this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are developing along the central High Plains this afternoon, where diurnal heating has eroded antecedent low-level inhibition. As storms track slowly east-southeastward into increasing boundary-layer moisture and buoyancy, steep lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs (around 40 kt of effective shear) will support transient supercell structures and small organized clusters. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible with any longer-lived storms that evolve into this evening, though weak large-scale forcing for ascent may limit overall storm longevity and coverage. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39540332 39940351 40460383 40930387 41810376 42300370 42590346 42690322 42630256 42430215 41750189 41190176 40330134 39730091 39000084 38680116 38580194 38720257 39030300 39540332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0558 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Southern Kansas...northern Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082258Z - 090030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have been intensifying along an east-west corridor in southern KS this afternoon, where a warm/moist boundary layer and steep deep-layer lapse rates are in place. While low-level flow is weak, around 25-30 kt of midlevel northerly winds (per ICT VWP) are supporting transient updraft organization. The environment will continue to support severe downbursts and isolated large hail with the stronger storms for the next couple hours, though the risk is expected to remain too sporadic for a watch. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37929419 37679368 37179365 36799388 36579518 36849997 37090054 37380082 37970099 38240075 38410022 38429913 38109675 37929419 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CHO TO 5 SSE DCA TO 20 NNW ILG TO 35 NNW EWR. ..SPC..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-015-017-019-029-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-510- 082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER Read more

WW 496 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 081740Z - 090100Z
CWZ000-090100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Far southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Central and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward through the afternoon and evening. The storm environment will favor a mix of small clusters and line segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east southeast of Lynchburg VA to 30 miles north of Newark NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020. ...Thompson Read more

718
ABPZ20 KNHC 082316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

477
ABNT20 KNHC 082316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

MD 1611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0558 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Southern Kansas...northern Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082258Z - 090030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have been intensifying along an east-west corridor in southern KS this afternoon, where a warm/moist boundary layer and steep deep-layer lapse rates are in place. While low-level flow is weak, around 25-30 kt of midlevel northerly winds (per ICT VWP) are supporting transient updraft organization. The environment will continue to support severe downbursts and isolated large hail with the stronger storms for the next couple hours, though the risk is expected to remain too sporadic for a watch. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37929419 37679368 37179365 36799388 36579518 36849997 37090054 37380082 37970099 38240075 38410022 38429913 38109675 37929419 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496... Valid 082246Z - 090045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across eastern and southern portions of ww496 over the next several hours. Damaging winds are the primary concern. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized band of strong-severe thunderstorms is spreading across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. This activity is propagating across an instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Surface temperatures are holding near 90F along the coast and modest westerly flow should encourage a robust squall line to spread offshore over the next several hours. Damaging winds can be expected with this convection. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37007963 41137559 41137271 36997691 37007963 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1609 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082229Z - 090030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve into this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are developing along the central High Plains this afternoon, where diurnal heating has eroded antecedent low-level inhibition. As storms track slowly east-southeastward into increasing boundary-layer moisture and buoyancy, steep lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs (around 40 kt of effective shear) will support transient supercell structures and small organized clusters. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible with any longer-lived storms that evolve into this evening, though weak large-scale forcing for ascent may limit overall storm longevity and coverage. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39540332 39940351 40460383 40930387 41810376 42300370 42590346 42690322 42630256 42430215 41750189 41190176 40330134 39730091 39000084 38680116 38580194 38720257 39030300 39540332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

On July 2, a drought emergency was declared in Lincoln County, Oregon, due to low stream flows and dry conditions. Voluntary water conservation was urged, including cutting down on outdoor use, checking for leaks, and replacing inefficient appliances. Lincoln County News Flash (Oregon), July 8, 2025.

Ground beef prices have risen 45% over the last 10 years, compared with roughly 30% for general inflation. The high prices are largely due to years of drought causing ranchers to sell off their cattle, with the national herd now at 27.8 million - the smallest it's been since the 1960's, despite population growth in the US. Severe drought in the western US from 2021-2024 led to substantial sell-offs and herds have not yet recovered, so demand currently outpaces supply. Grain prices, interest rates, and tariffs have also driven up the price. CBS News (New York) July 8, 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 8 22:23:06 UTC 2025.

WW 0496 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CHO TO 5 SSE DCA TO 20 NNW ILG TO 35 NNW EWR. ..SPC..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-015-017-019-029-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-510- 082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CHO TO 5 SSE DCA TO 20 NNW ILG TO 35 NNW EWR. ..SPC..07/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-082340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-082340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-009-011-015-017-019-029-033-035-037-039-041-045-047-510- 082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER Read more

WW 496 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 081740Z - 090100Z
CWZ000-090100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Far southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Central and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward through the afternoon and evening. The storm environment will favor a mix of small clusters and line segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east southeast of Lynchburg VA to 30 miles north of Newark NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Thursday... A mid-level short wave with associated stronger deep layer westerly flow will bring a fire weather threat to a corridor from the Arizona Strip to the Western Slope. The stronger westerly flow in concert with a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a dry and breezy setup amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Days 4-8/Friday-Tuesday... Model guidance consensus indicates a broad mid-level ridge centroid slowly propagating westward from AZ on Day 3/Thursday to off the southern CA coast by Day 7/Monday. Primary impact will be increasing temperatures to above seasonal normals along with dry conditions across the majority of the West, aiding in drying of fuels. Stronger west-northwesterly flow across the Northern Tier states could provide for elevated surface winds at times, but overlap of a low relative humidity/dry fuel environment is not likely with the exception of southern ID/Snake River Plain over the weekend (Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday). Overall thunderstorm threat will be limited to the eastern U.S. (along and east of the Continental Divide) through early next week. ..Williams.. 07/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more