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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

MD 1616 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...Lower Michigan into far northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091803Z - 092000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of weak supercells may develop across parts of lower Michigan through the afternoon with an attendant threat for large hail and severe winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated given the limited coverage of this threat. DISCUSSION...Early thunderstorm development is underway across central to southern lower MI as convection percolates along several subtle boundaries over the region, including a weak cold front, a lake-breeze boundary, and a weak surface trough. Despite somewhat nebulous surface features and weak low-level winds, GOES-derived winds suggest shear within the cloud-bearing layer is between 25-30 knots. This is slightly stronger than anticipated by morning guidance, and hints that the kinematic environment is supportive of organized convection. Similarly, a cold bias is noted in morning guidance with observed temperatures running 2-4 F warmer than anticipated. Consequently, surface-based CAPE estimates in recent mesoanalyses may be more representative of the thermodynamic environment and suggests around 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE is in place across lower MI. Overall, these trends point towards a favorable convective environment for weak supercells and/or organized clusters. Meager forcing for ascent will likely limit severe storm coverage, which should negate the need for watch issuance, but a few instances of large hail/severe winds appear possible through late afternoon. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41798533 42488561 42938563 43398545 43788504 44188345 44178293 43958265 43488245 43198235 42868236 42478255 41698297 41418318 41198351 41098376 41098409 41138453 41238478 41798533 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more