Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

909
ABPZ20 KNHC 101710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101706
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more