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MD 1627 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio into northern Pennsylvania and western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101651Z - 101845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing through the afternoon will be capable of damaging winds. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lighting data show the early stages of thunderstorm development across northeast OH into western NY within a diffuse surface trough and along developing lake breeze boundaries. Thunderstorm coverage should slowly increase through the afternoon as temperatures warm and baroclinic circulations strengthen along the lake breeze boundaries. Despite warm/moist low-level conditions, modest mid-level lapse rates should limit overall buoyancy values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Additionally, deep-layer wind shear over the region remains fairly meager with regional VWPs and morning RAOBs sampling mid/upper-level winds of around 20-30 knots. Given weak low-level flow, this will be adequate for some degree of storm organization and persistence, but should modulate overall convective intensities. Watch issuance is not expected, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible as storms develop through the afternoon. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40968248 41188220 43437605 43517545 43387513 42997473 42627468 42187482 41947534 40228061 40088127 40048180 40148226 40388246 40648249 40968248 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes. ...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes... Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts. Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. ...Central to southern High Plains... Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more