Aggregator

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE HSS TO 30 E SSU TO 25 SSE UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 ..MOORE..07/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...RLX...AKQ...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 092140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1618 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Idaho into southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091948Z - 092115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe gusts will become an increasing concern as at least scattered thunderstorms develop and mature through the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...Deepening CU over eastern ID/southern MT are indicating attempts at thunderstorm initiation atop a destabilizing boundary layer with eroding convective inhibition. 19Z mesoanalysis shows boundary-layer lapse rates already reaching 9 C/km in some spots, with 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings indicate a dry boundary layer extending to 500 mb, which is being overspread by stronger mid-upper level flow and 30 kts of effective bulk shear (i.e. straight hodographs indicating speed shear). Organized, high-based multicells should traverse portions of the the northern Rockies, accompanied by mainly a severe gust threat. If confidence increases in greater coverage of severe gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 45111508 46501254 47021071 47090875 46540812 45790811 45150871 44900926 44541039 44241175 44011271 43841336 43811402 43871457 45111508 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 1617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of western into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 091831Z - 092030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development appears imminent. Storms should gradually intensify through the afternoon, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be needed in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows deepening CU along the Black Hills in southwestern SD, where convective inhibition continues to rapidly erode with boundary-layer heating/mixing. MLCAPE is already reaching the 1500-2500 J/kg range ahead of the storms, with over 30 kts of effective bulk effective shear (and a straight hodograph) already in place (per 18Z mesoanalysis/UNR special observed sounding). Thunderstorms should develop shortly, and will soon after move over the more unstable/sheared airmass. Current thinking is that storms should remain more discrete for a few hours before attempting to grow upscale. Given steep low-level lapse rates, severe gusts are a concern (a few of which may exceed 75 mph), with the 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and straight hodographs supporting severe hail potential as well. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed to address the increasing severe threat. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 43080277 43930359 45510441 45770433 45870371 45640180 45120043 44360004 43700015 43270086 43000202 43080277 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more