Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS through the weekend, before a mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by early next week. Thereafter, upper ridging will briefly set in during the middle of next week before another mid-level trough impinges on the Northwest before next weekend. The net result will be a warming and drying trend across much of the Interior West into the Pacific Northwest, which will augment the curing of fuels. The passage of the first mid-level trough will provide enough upper support to induce dry/windy conditions across portions of the Cascades on Day 4 (Sunday), and then farther east over the Snake River Plain Days 5-6 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Isolated dry thunderstorms could occur across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies early next week, but the specifics of timing and coverage (given model differences) are too unclear to warrant dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Furthermore, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance in the placement and timing of the next mid-level trough late next week. Given these uncertainties, probabilities for dry/windy conditions and dry thunderstorms have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS through the weekend, before a mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by early next week. Thereafter, upper ridging will briefly set in during the middle of next week before another mid-level trough impinges on the Northwest before next weekend. The net result will be a warming and drying trend across much of the Interior West into the Pacific Northwest, which will augment the curing of fuels. The passage of the first mid-level trough will provide enough upper support to induce dry/windy conditions across portions of the Cascades on Day 4 (Sunday), and then farther east over the Snake River Plain Days 5-6 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Isolated dry thunderstorms could occur across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies early next week, but the specifics of timing and coverage (given model differences) are too unclear to warrant dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Furthermore, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance in the placement and timing of the next mid-level trough late next week. Given these uncertainties, probabilities for dry/windy conditions and dry thunderstorms have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS through the weekend, before a mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by early next week. Thereafter, upper ridging will briefly set in during the middle of next week before another mid-level trough impinges on the Northwest before next weekend. The net result will be a warming and drying trend across much of the Interior West into the Pacific Northwest, which will augment the curing of fuels. The passage of the first mid-level trough will provide enough upper support to induce dry/windy conditions across portions of the Cascades on Day 4 (Sunday), and then farther east over the Snake River Plain Days 5-6 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Isolated dry thunderstorms could occur across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies early next week, but the specifics of timing and coverage (given model differences) are too unclear to warrant dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Furthermore, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance in the placement and timing of the next mid-level trough late next week. Given these uncertainties, probabilities for dry/windy conditions and dry thunderstorms have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS through the weekend, before a mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by early next week. Thereafter, upper ridging will briefly set in during the middle of next week before another mid-level trough impinges on the Northwest before next weekend. The net result will be a warming and drying trend across much of the Interior West into the Pacific Northwest, which will augment the curing of fuels. The passage of the first mid-level trough will provide enough upper support to induce dry/windy conditions across portions of the Cascades on Day 4 (Sunday), and then farther east over the Snake River Plain Days 5-6 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Isolated dry thunderstorms could occur across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies early next week, but the specifics of timing and coverage (given model differences) are too unclear to warrant dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Furthermore, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance in the placement and timing of the next mid-level trough late next week. Given these uncertainties, probabilities for dry/windy conditions and dry thunderstorms have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS through the weekend, before a mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by early next week. Thereafter, upper ridging will briefly set in during the middle of next week before another mid-level trough impinges on the Northwest before next weekend. The net result will be a warming and drying trend across much of the Interior West into the Pacific Northwest, which will augment the curing of fuels. The passage of the first mid-level trough will provide enough upper support to induce dry/windy conditions across portions of the Cascades on Day 4 (Sunday), and then farther east over the Snake River Plain Days 5-6 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Isolated dry thunderstorms could occur across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies early next week, but the specifics of timing and coverage (given model differences) are too unclear to warrant dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Furthermore, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance in the placement and timing of the next mid-level trough late next week. Given these uncertainties, probabilities for dry/windy conditions and dry thunderstorms have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS through the weekend, before a mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by early next week. Thereafter, upper ridging will briefly set in during the middle of next week before another mid-level trough impinges on the Northwest before next weekend. The net result will be a warming and drying trend across much of the Interior West into the Pacific Northwest, which will augment the curing of fuels. The passage of the first mid-level trough will provide enough upper support to induce dry/windy conditions across portions of the Cascades on Day 4 (Sunday), and then farther east over the Snake River Plain Days 5-6 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Isolated dry thunderstorms could occur across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies early next week, but the specifics of timing and coverage (given model differences) are too unclear to warrant dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Furthermore, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance in the placement and timing of the next mid-level trough late next week. Given these uncertainties, probabilities for dry/windy conditions and dry thunderstorms have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more