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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Monday. ...Mid Atlantic to southern New England... Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover, diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY. Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies and Plains... An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night. Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms from northern WY into the western Dakotas. Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND. A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including supercell structures) capable of isolated hail. ...Southeast States... A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft. Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15 kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still, sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible. ..Lyons.. 07/13/2025 Read more

159
ABNT20 KNHC 131726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and
into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system during the
middle to late part of this week while it moves westward over the
northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding
over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through
the mid to late portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

284
ABPZ20 KNHC 131714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LABEL ...Mogollon Rim... Daytime heating and instability within a corridor of precipitable water values of 0.50-0.75 inches will support isolated dry thunderstorm development across the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Heavier precipitation cores in the lower desert areas in southern Arizona (with PWATs of around one inch) will limit new ignition potential to the Mogollon Rim corridor where dry fuels exist. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LABEL ...Mogollon Rim... Daytime heating and instability within a corridor of precipitable water values of 0.50-0.75 inches will support isolated dry thunderstorm development across the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Heavier precipitation cores in the lower desert areas in southern Arizona (with PWATs of around one inch) will limit new ignition potential to the Mogollon Rim corridor where dry fuels exist. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LABEL ...Mogollon Rim... Daytime heating and instability within a corridor of precipitable water values of 0.50-0.75 inches will support isolated dry thunderstorm development across the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Heavier precipitation cores in the lower desert areas in southern Arizona (with PWATs of around one inch) will limit new ignition potential to the Mogollon Rim corridor where dry fuels exist. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LABEL ...Mogollon Rim... Daytime heating and instability within a corridor of precipitable water values of 0.50-0.75 inches will support isolated dry thunderstorm development across the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Heavier precipitation cores in the lower desert areas in southern Arizona (with PWATs of around one inch) will limit new ignition potential to the Mogollon Rim corridor where dry fuels exist. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LABEL ...Mogollon Rim... Daytime heating and instability within a corridor of precipitable water values of 0.50-0.75 inches will support isolated dry thunderstorm development across the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Heavier precipitation cores in the lower desert areas in southern Arizona (with PWATs of around one inch) will limit new ignition potential to the Mogollon Rim corridor where dry fuels exist. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more