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Starting mid-March, releases from Gavins Point Dam were adjusted to provide flow support for Missouri River navigation. Navigation flow support for the Missouri River was at 4,000 cubic feet per second below full-service for the first half of the 2025 season, which began April 1 at the mouth of the river near St. Louis, Missouri. The service level was based on the total volume of water stored within the System on March 15, in accordance with the guidelines in the Master Manual. US Army Corps of Engineers Northwestern Division, April 9, 2025

MD 1666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 140034Z - 140230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity accompanied by a few strong to locally severe surface gusts may impact the Greater Tucson area by 7-8 PM MST. DISCUSSION...Although convective inhibition is strong across the strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer across the lower deserts, latest objective analysis indicates that inhibition across elevations around Tucson is much more modest in the peak afternoon heating. A corridor of modest CAPE appears to linger from from northeast of the Greater Tucson area into areas just to the southwest, generally aligned with the 10-20 kt east-northeasterly mid-level steering flow for convection. A small cluster of storms which initiated across the mountains of northeastern Cochise Country, perhaps aided by outflow from a dissipating cluster across the higher terrain of southwestern New Mexico, appears to be in the process of gradually propagating off (west/southwest of) the higher terrain. It appears possible that forcing for ascent along the associated outflow could support thunderstorm development into and across the Greater Tucson area by around 02-03Z, before inhibition with the loss of daytime heating becomes increasingly suppressive of thunderstorm development. As this occurs, with the sub-cloud layer to the surface still characterized by large temperature-dew point spreads (including 30-40+ F at the surface), even with some cooling off of current temperatures in excess of 100F, the potential for a few strong to severe outflow gusts seems likely to continue. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC... LAT...LON 32151123 32251047 32121017 31880969 31630966 31381042 31411101 31891146 32151123 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...far northeastern Nebraska...eastern South Dakota...southwestern Minnesota...northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132247Z - 140045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated risk for damaging wind and large hail with storms through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed as weak forcing for ascent has overspread a cold front/stationary front extending from Nebraska into central Minnesota. The air mass ahead of the boundary is moist and very unstable, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s. Deep layer shear around 30 kts and steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for a few organized cells to pose a risk for damaging wind and large hail. Overall, guidance suggests storm coverage will remain fairly isolated amid weak upper forcing and warmer mid-level temperatures. As such, the isolated nature of the threat will preclude watch issuance. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 45779370 44709358 43489529 42809648 42339727 42649854 44499764 45409675 45949593 46309516 46209424 45779370 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

402
ABNT20 KNHC 132313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the southeastern United States, northwestern
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. This system is forecast to
move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the
northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system during the middle to
latter part of this week while it moves westward over the
northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding
over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through
the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 1663 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132038Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and into the evening, posing a severe wind risk. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over the high terrain this afternoon across the region. While moisture is meager for this time of year, it is sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and robust updrafts. The 18Z Tucson sounding represents the characteristic well-mixed, inverted-V sounding profiles across the region. Certainly, this environment will support dry-microburst potential for the strongest storms. With northeasterly midlevel flow expected to increase this afternoon and evening, a more organized wind threat could develop and move south-southwestward off the higher terrain. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33980977 33830876 33570786 33230767 32500760 32060779 31780818 31430855 31340940 31361050 31461089 31861121 32191135 32561134 33451099 33980977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1664 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1664 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX into far southeast OK...northwest LA...southwest/central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132041Z - 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms with locally damaging winds are possible through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity has been noted within a very moist and strongly buoyant environment across east-central TX, along a composite outflow to the east of a well-defined MCV over central TX. Deep-layer shear is relatively weak, but modest southwesterly low/midlevel flow attendant to the MCV and further outflow consolidation could result in a northeastward-moving storm cluster that will move toward the ArkLaTex region through the remainder of the afternoon. Such a cluster could be accompanied by isolated damaging winds. Additional storm development will be possible ahead of this developing cluster into northeast TX and southwest AR, which may also be capable of producing localized downbursts. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32119631 33659486 35089343 35329273 35449237 35119174 34389171 33619266 32239336 30479418 30219468 30149530 30119573 30119599 30089649 30399638 31279615 32119631 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more