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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

102
ABNT20 KNHC 140503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent
Atlantic waters. This system is forecast to move westward across
Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by
late Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to
support some gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and
north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part
of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the
north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen