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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible across parts of the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley through sunset. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the ongoing forecast was to remove severe probabilities from lower Michigan where the airmass has become more stable behind the surface front. Elsewhere, minor changes were made base on current observations. Please see the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible across parts of the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley through sunset. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the ongoing forecast was to remove severe probabilities from lower Michigan where the airmass has become more stable behind the surface front. Elsewhere, minor changes were made base on current observations. Please see the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible across parts of the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley through sunset. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the ongoing forecast was to remove severe probabilities from lower Michigan where the airmass has become more stable behind the surface front. Elsewhere, minor changes were made base on current observations. Please see the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Columbia Basin... Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph concentrated through the Cascade gaps. ...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID... A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions across central ID. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Columbia Basin... Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph concentrated through the Cascade gaps. ...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID... A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions across central ID. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Columbia Basin... Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph concentrated through the Cascade gaps. ...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID... A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions across central ID. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Columbia Basin... Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph concentrated through the Cascade gaps. ...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID... A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions across central ID. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Columbia Basin... Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph concentrated through the Cascade gaps. ...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID... A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions across central ID. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Columbia Basin... Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph concentrated through the Cascade gaps. ...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID... A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions across central ID. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Columbia Basin... Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph concentrated through the Cascade gaps. ...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID... A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions across central ID. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1656 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1656 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121724Z - 121930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Sporadic damaging gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...A complex convective scenario is unfolding early this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Robust surface moisture is in place along with a myriad of convectively reinforced/augmented boundaries and MCVs from southwest KS, across OK and western AR. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to increase in coverage over the next several hours. Weak ascent from partial diurnal heating, the surface boundaries and remnant MCVs should result in numerous storms near and along these features by this afternoon. Saturated thermodynamic profiles with tall/skinny MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will result in moderate to strong updrafts and efficient warm-precipitation generation processes with PWATS near or exceeding 2 inches. Vertical shear is modest (15-25 kt), though some slight mid-level enhancement has been noted near the MCVs. With heavy water loading, occasional stronger downdrafts capable of sporadic severe gusts are possible, especially where higher storm coverage/clustering can occur. This appears most likely ahead of the MCVs and along the surface boundaries over the next few hours. CAM guidance and observations show increasing storm coverage gradually spreading eastward across much of OK into western AR. with a few strong/severe gusts possible. While a localized increase in the severe risk appears likely with any of these persistent clusters, the relatively disorganized nature of the threat suggests a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 34189962 35720001 36849891 36889880 36999714 36389588 36209543 35989462 36109336 35459259 34299380 33619527 33239744 34189962 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more