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MD 1655 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR IN...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH...NORTHERN/WESTERN KY...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1655 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas affected...IN...western/central OH...northern/western KY...southern IL...southeast MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121642Z - 121915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated to scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A diffuse cold front is currently moving across parts of IL/IN, with evidence of a gravity wave preceding the front from northwest OH into east/central IN. Cumulus is gradually building in the vicinity of this prefrontal feature, with recent storm initiation noted across far northwest OH. With weak midlevel lapse rates in place, initial convection may only gradually intensify. However, rich moisture and MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range could eventually support more robust storm development along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is generally weak, but steepening low-level lapse rates and 20-30 kt of southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may allow for a few stronger outflow-driven clusters capable of isolated to scattered damaging wind. Farther southwest, a weak storm cluster is ongoing from southeast MO into southern IL. Heating/destabilization ahead of this cluster may allow for some intensification with time, accompanied by a threat for at least isolated damaging winds as it moves generally east-northeastward. Additional strong storms may develop in the wake of this cluster later this afternoon, along the diffuse cold front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Coverage of the organized severe threat across the region remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a corridor of somewhat greater damaging-wind potential becomes apparent. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38048998 39468779 40478619 41658502 41718318 41348203 39998306 38628486 37958616 37208804 36768958 37028995 38048998 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

958
ABNT20 KNHC 121730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions
could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of
this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally
westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and
north-central portion of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and
southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more