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MD 1649 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... FOR WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...west central through northeastern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507... Valid 112347Z - 120045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 continues. SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm development and intensity still appears possible through 8-10 PM CDT, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts. It is not clear that an additional severe weather watch will be needed, but Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 probably will be maintained until current 10 PM CDT scheduled expiration. DISCUSSION...The most vigorous thunderstorm development, to this point, has remained well to the north of the region, associated with forcing for ascent with a lead perturbation within larger-scale weak mid-level troughing accelerating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley. While one coincident surface wave, along a low-level baroclinic zone strengthened by differential surface heating, migrates into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois, modestly deep surface troughing lags to the southwest and is being overtaken by an initial weak cold front across northwestern Missouri into northeastern Kansas. Within this surface troughing, a seasonably warm and moist boundary-layer remains characterized by sizable CAPE in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, as a trailing mid-level perturbation digs into the lower Missouri Valley. Although deep-layer shear becomes more modest to the south/southwest of the Iowa/Missouri state border, it is still possible that increasing forcing for ascent could support further upscale growth of ongoing convective development now northwest of Chillicothe MO into western portions of the Greater Kansas City vicinity. As this occurs and spreads eastward during the next few hours, gradual organization is possible, perhaps accompanied by at least some increase in potential for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 39849419 40619282 39919159 38409384 38849502 39849419 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW OJC TO 30 WNW IRK. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-120140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE KSC121-120140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIAMI MOC001-007-019-033-037-041-053-089-095-101-103-107-111-115-117- 121-127-137-159-163-173-175-177-195-205-211-120140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HOWARD JACKSON Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BRL TO 20 E MLI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-067-071-073-109-131-155-187-120100- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH MERCER PUTNAM WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-120100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN MOC045-197-199-120100- MO Read more

WW 505 TORNADO IA IL MO 111755Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast Iowa Far Northwest Illinois Far Northern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in close proximity to a surface low over far southwest IA, and associated warm front that extends eastward across southern IA into far northwest IL. Ample low-level moisture is supporting strong buoyancy, and the potential for robust updrafts. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible within this environment. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Lamoni IA to 30 miles northeast of Moline IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-120140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-120140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION OKC025-120140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-120140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-153-120140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS NEC007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-123-135-145- 120140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHASE CHEYENNE DEUEL DUNDY FRONTIER Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DBQ TO 40 SW MSN. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC061-120140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUBUQUE WIC111-120140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DBQ TO 40 SW MSN. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC061-120140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUBUQUE WIC111-120140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DBQ TO 40 SW MSN. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC061-120140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUBUQUE WIC111-120140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DBQ TO 40 SW MSN. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC061-120140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUBUQUE WIC111-120140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DBQ TO 40 SW MSN. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC061-120140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUBUQUE WIC111-120140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SAUK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 506 SEVERE TSTM IA WI 111815Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Northeast Iowa Far Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to increase over the next several hours from north-central/northeast IA into far southwest WI. Environmental conditions support the potential for some strong to severe storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Waterloo IA to 20 miles east southeast of Lonerock WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 505... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1649 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... FOR WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...west central through northeastern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507... Valid 112347Z - 120045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 continues. SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm development and intensity still appears possible through 8-10 PM CDT, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts. It is not clear that an additional severe weather watch will be needed, but Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 probably will be maintained until current 10 PM CDT scheduled expiration. DISCUSSION...The most vigorous thunderstorm development, to this point, has remained well to the north of the region, associated with forcing for ascent with a lead perturbation within larger-scale weak mid-level troughing accelerating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley. While one coincident surface wave, along a low-level baroclinic zone strengthened by differential surface heating, migrates into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois, modestly deep surface troughing lags to the southwest and is being overtaken by an initial weak cold front across northwestern Missouri into northeastern Kansas. Within this surface troughing, a seasonably warm and moist boundary-layer remains characterized by sizable CAPE in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, as a trailing mid-level perturbation digs into the lower Missouri Valley. Although deep-layer shear becomes more modest to the south/southwest of the Iowa/Missouri state border, it is still possible that increasing forcing for ascent could support further upscale growth of ongoing convective development now northwest of Chillicothe MO into western portions of the Greater Kansas City vicinity. As this occurs and spreads eastward during the next few hours, gradual organization is possible, perhaps accompanied by at least some increase in potential for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 39849419 40619282 39919159 38409384 38849502 39849419 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1648 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 505...508... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0557 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 505...508... Valid 112257Z - 120100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 505, 508 continues. SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms likely will continue to pose a risk for strong to severe surface gusts, and perhaps an additional brief tornado or two, across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the next couple of hours, reaching the Greater Milwaukee into portions of the Greater Chicago metro areas by 8 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...The evolving convective system has become better organized over the past couple of hours, with at least one developing meso-beta scale cyclonic vortex (now near Dubuque IA) becoming increasingly prominent. The apex of the southward trailing bow echo structure in radar reflectivities is propagating east-northeastward around 45 kt, and, at this continued motion, will reach the southwestern shores of Lake Michigan near the Greater Milwaukee area by 01Z. In the presence of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, moderately strong easterly updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg seems likely to maintain current convective intensities at least to the the southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. As long as this continues, westerly rear inflow probably will remain sufficiently strong to contribute to strong to severe surface gusts in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 43208980 43548869 43568796 43178750 42218756 41788778 41678926 41768977 42488951 42969002 43208980 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

018
ABNT20 KNHC 112327
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg