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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0507 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more