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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... An upper trough will develop eastward across the northern Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to spread southeast across the Dakotas/NE, becoming positioned from the Upper MS Valley to northern KS by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization, and thunderstorms should develop by mid-to-late afternoon as large-scale ascent increases. Deep-layer flow is not forecast to be overly strong, with effective shear magnitudes in forecast soundings generally around 25-30 kt. Given favorable thermodynamic profiles, this should be more than sufficient for scattered organized cells capable of produce strong gusts and hail from NE/SD into MN, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. ...Mid-MS Valley... A remnant low/MCV is forecast to move across MO/IL/IA on Tuesday. A very moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints into the 70s and PW values near 2 inches. This will aid in moderate destabilization, though forecast lapse rates are modest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be modest, though some local enhancement near the low/MCV is possible. Quite a bit of spread in noted in forecast guidance regarding the strength of this feature, and several rounds of convection are possible in the days prior to Tuesday. At this time, severe potential appears limited, but isolated strong gusts could. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability. Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe storms initially along the surface trough, with additional development possible along the cold front during the evening and into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. ...Mid-Atlantic into FL... A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability. Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe storms initially along the surface trough, with additional development possible along the cold front during the evening and into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. ...Mid-Atlantic into FL... A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability. Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe storms initially along the surface trough, with additional development possible along the cold front during the evening and into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. ...Mid-Atlantic into FL... A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability. Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe storms initially along the surface trough, with additional development possible along the cold front during the evening and into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. ...Mid-Atlantic into FL... A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130501
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern
U.S. coast during the next couple of days and then move westward
across Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system
during the middle to late part of next week while it moves westward
over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through mid to late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

287
ABPZ20 KNHC 130500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more