Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with wind gusts will be possible today across Montana and the northern Rockies/Great Basin, southern Arizona, and Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... A prominent upper-level trough will spread eastward from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. Forecast soundings are suggestive of 40-60 F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Other high-based storms capable of severe-caliber wind gusts could occur as far southwest as parts of the Great Basin later this afternoon and evening, within an unstable air mass ahead of a front across the northern Intermountain region. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Localized severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust will again be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening as storms progress south-southwestward onto the desert floor. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Cloud cover will likely remain prevalent regionally today with showers/some thunderstorms ongoing this morning to the south of the primary front that will be shifting south-southeastward across the northern and central Appalachians. Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development within a plume of seasonably high moisture content. While lapse rates and overall buoyancy will be modest, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with the possibility of locally damaging surface gusts/tree damage this afternoon. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast and Southern Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear will occur today. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a few very weak/transient mesocyclones. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with wind gusts will be possible today across Montana and the northern Rockies/Great Basin, southern Arizona, and Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... A prominent upper-level trough will spread eastward from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. Forecast soundings are suggestive of 40-60 F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Other high-based storms capable of severe-caliber wind gusts could occur as far southwest as parts of the Great Basin later this afternoon and evening, within an unstable air mass ahead of a front across the northern Intermountain region. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Localized severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust will again be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening as storms progress south-southwestward onto the desert floor. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Cloud cover will likely remain prevalent regionally today with showers/some thunderstorms ongoing this morning to the south of the primary front that will be shifting south-southeastward across the northern and central Appalachians. Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development within a plume of seasonably high moisture content. While lapse rates and overall buoyancy will be modest, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with the possibility of locally damaging surface gusts/tree damage this afternoon. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast and Southern Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear will occur today. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a few very weak/transient mesocyclones. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with wind gusts will be possible today across Montana and the northern Rockies/Great Basin, southern Arizona, and Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... A prominent upper-level trough will spread eastward from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. Forecast soundings are suggestive of 40-60 F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Other high-based storms capable of severe-caliber wind gusts could occur as far southwest as parts of the Great Basin later this afternoon and evening, within an unstable air mass ahead of a front across the northern Intermountain region. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Localized severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust will again be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening as storms progress south-southwestward onto the desert floor. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Cloud cover will likely remain prevalent regionally today with showers/some thunderstorms ongoing this morning to the south of the primary front that will be shifting south-southeastward across the northern and central Appalachians. Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development within a plume of seasonably high moisture content. While lapse rates and overall buoyancy will be modest, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with the possibility of locally damaging surface gusts/tree damage this afternoon. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast and Southern Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear will occur today. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a few very weak/transient mesocyclones. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms with wind gusts will be possible today across Montana and the northern Rockies/Great Basin, southern Arizona, and Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... A prominent upper-level trough will spread eastward from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to initiate off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front, across central Montana, where a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer may become characterized by modest instability. Forecast soundings are suggestive of 40-60 F temperature-dew point spreads by peak heating. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Other high-based storms capable of severe-caliber wind gusts could occur as far southwest as parts of the Great Basin later this afternoon and evening, within an unstable air mass ahead of a front across the northern Intermountain region. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Localized severe-caliber wind gusts and blowing dust will again be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening as storms progress south-southwestward onto the desert floor. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Cloud cover will likely remain prevalent regionally today with showers/some thunderstorms ongoing this morning to the south of the primary front that will be shifting south-southeastward across the northern and central Appalachians. Near the southern periphery of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, a belt of 30-40 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may enhance convective development within a plume of seasonably high moisture content. While lapse rates and overall buoyancy will be modest, heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum may contribute to a few strong downdrafts with the possibility of locally damaging surface gusts/tree damage this afternoon. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast and Southern Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear will occur today. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a few very weak/transient mesocyclones. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/25/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 11:29:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 11:29:22 GMT

Issued at 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 132 WTPZ42 KNHC 251128 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Recent surface observations from the Mexican Navy station on Isla Clarion reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a pressure of 1004 mb as Bud passed to the south of the station. Given that ASCAT from a few hours ago showed vectors as high as 44 kt, the observations from the island are consistent. The only change to the NHC forecast is to increase the forecast wind speed through the 24-hour point, due to the higher initial intensity. The observations from Isla Clarion also suggest the gust factor is a little higher than normal, and this is indicated in the Forecast/Advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1130Z 18.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 251127 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 1130Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 251127 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Special Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 430 AM PDT...1130 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 115.0W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 430 AM PDT (1130 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Recent surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 4:30 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 18.0, -115.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251126 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1130 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.0W AT 25/1130Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.0W AT 25/1130Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 08:37:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 09:22:45 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak upper trough will migrate across the Midwest early in the forecast period. However, weak deep-layer flow and relatively modest large-scale ascent may limit severe potential. Generally low-amplitude upper troughing will then prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS through much of the work week. Meanwhile, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies/High Plains vicinity will persist for much of the Day 4-8 period. Some severe potential is possible in a northwesterly flow regime over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valley around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, but this risk would largely be driven by mesoscale factors not well resolved at longer time periods. Late in the period, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough may develop eastward atop the upper ridge in the vicinity of the northern Plains. This break down of the upper ridge amid a very moist and unstable boundary layer would be a favorable pattern for potential MCS development around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250834 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep convection. Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40 kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. This intensity is also supported by other recent satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt. The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt. The cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus models. Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is forecast to stay over relatively warm water. In addition, after 12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or less. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250834 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250833 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN