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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260534
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

A low pressure area is expected to form by the middle of next week
several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico. Some
additional development is possible after that time as the system
moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Drought in West Virginia has kept crops and pastures from growing. Livestock producers were feeding hay early, which was cutting into the amount of winter feed available for the animals. Some farmers were considering selling cattle rather than buying hay. Some springs were going dry. WV Metro News (Charleston, W.V.), July 29, 2024 Grass was not growing so West Virginia farmers were not able to get a second cutting of hay. Farmers may need to consider selling livestock earlier than usual to avoid running out of pasture. WV News (Clarksburg, W.V.), July 22, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 02:36:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 03:22:40 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260235 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Deep convection associated with Bud has collapsed this evening. The infrared cloud tops have warmed over the center, which is now partially exposed due to the thinning central overcast. As a result, the latest satellite intensity estimates have decreased. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, in best agreement with a T-3.0/45 kt Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Bud is moving westward at 11 kt, to the south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower forward speed this weekend as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by the low-level flow. Once again, the NHC forecast has been nudged slightly north of the previous prediction based on the latest track aids. Despite weak vertical wind shear, Bud is expected to weaken over the next couple of days while moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into a drier and more stable environment. All of the dynamical and statistical models show weakening during the next couple of days, and the latest NHC forecast closely follows the latest multi-model consensus aids. The post-tropical transition and dissipation of Bud could occur even sooner than forecast if the system is unable to sustain more organized deep convection going forward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.6N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260235 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260234 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD LOSES ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 117.9W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 117.9 West. Bud is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slower west-southwestward motion is forecast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...BUD LOSES ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 18.6, -117.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260234 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE BIL TO 70 NNW GGW. ..HALBERT..07/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-033-105-260340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS GARFIELD VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1710 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560... FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...North Central and Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560... Valid 260049Z - 260145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat for WW 560 continues, as thunderstorms in northern Montana have organized into a bowing MCS with outflow winds capable of severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Dry, well mixed boundary layer profiles have supported the organization of thunderstorm outflow into linear bowing segments capable of 60-70 MPH wind gusts across northern Montana. The most intense corridor of thunderstorm winds is currently approaching Glasgow, where the apex of the outflow bowing segment shows 55-60 kt winds at 1200-1500 feet above ground. Given the well mixed nature of the boundary layer, there is little preventing the transfer of this momentum to the surface and could result in reports of wind damage. Depending on the longevity of the linear segments, local watch extension eastward could be needed. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48220806 48500808 48710785 48810739 48850706 48890662 48930629 48850596 48740580 48370575 48160573 47550583 47330584 46850603 46770623 46680677 46700726 46700781 46760800 47040814 47320821 47830827 48130815 48220806 Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BIL TO 80 NW GGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710 ..HALBERT..07/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-033-069-071-105-260240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS GARFIELD PETROLEUM PHILLIPS VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 560 SEVERE TSTM MT 252145Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over north-central Montana and track quickly eastward through the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Lewistown MT to 70 miles northwest of Glasgow MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1709 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1709 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Lower Deserts of Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252325Z - 260130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are gradually expanding in areal coverage over the higher terrain early this evening. This activity has developed within a weak-flow regime that favors southward propagation toward lower-desert regions. Latest diagnostic data suggests a modest corridor of MLCAPE exists from Maricopa county to near the international border. Convection that spreads into this airmass may generate gusty winds as PW values are in excess of 1.5 inches, and sub-cloud (3km AGL) RH is fairly low. At this time current thinking is the severe gust potential may be a bit too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will continue to monitor for convective organization. ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31871308 33561268 33401101 32490979 31261023 31871308 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more