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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Central/Northeast Montana... Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities. Although this activity does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer, coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts until convection dissipates later this evening. ...Arizona... A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity. While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to east-northeasterly mid/upper flow. Even with 50-60 degree surface temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE 3HT TO 45 NNE HVR. ..HALBERT..07/25/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-019-027-033-069-071-105-260040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE DANIELS FERGUS GARFIELD PETROLEUM PHILLIPS VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1709 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1709 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Lower Deserts of Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252325Z - 260130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are gradually expanding in areal coverage over the higher terrain early this evening. This activity has developed within a weak-flow regime that favors southward propagation toward lower-desert regions. Latest diagnostic data suggests a modest corridor of MLCAPE exists from Maricopa county to near the international border. Convection that spreads into this airmass may generate gusty winds as PW values are in excess of 1.5 inches, and sub-cloud (3km AGL) RH is fairly low. At this time current thinking is the severe gust potential may be a bit too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will continue to monitor for convective organization. ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31871308 33561268 33401101 32490979 31261023 31871308 Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE 3HT TO 45 NNE HVR. ..HALBERT..07/25/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-019-027-033-069-071-105-260040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE DANIELS FERGUS GARFIELD PETROLEUM PHILLIPS VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 560 SEVERE TSTM MT 252145Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over north-central Montana and track quickly eastward through the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Lewistown MT to 70 miles northwest of Glasgow MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

Some of the corn and soybeans may be a complete loss. Most area farmers lack irrigation capability, so crops were stunted. The ground was so dry that some soybean plants were dying. Fredericksburg (Va.), July 23, 2024

Some Stafford County pastures have so little grass that farmers must purchase hay to feed their cattle. A hay grower said that there would likely be no second cutting of hay this year. Livestock feed was hard to find as many cattle and horse farmers were feeding hay early. Scarce hay supplies in addition to higher demand will mean rising prices. Dairy farmers looking for corn for feed were also facing higher prices for corn. Many farmers will have to choose between buying hay and selling livestock. Fredericksburg (Va.), July 23, 2024

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 25 23:15:07 UTC 2024.

MD 1708 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Nevada into Northwestern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252145Z - 252315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across central and eastern Nevada into northwestern Utah this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Steep lapse rates and relatively dry boundary layer profiles will support the potential for damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow this afternoon and evening. With only meager buoyancy and minimal mid or upper-level flow/deep vertical shear to support organized convection, the occurrence of any severe winds will be isolated unless interacting thunderstorm outflow begins to organize into bowing segments later this evening. However, uncertainty in this scenario remains high, meaning severe thunderstorm watch issuance is uncertain at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV... LAT...LON 38671526 38601626 38641666 38851715 39051736 39271759 39671774 39991785 40421760 40891682 41441604 42011518 42391459 42761392 42921296 42841238 42681210 42311184 41901177 41461171 40891171 40371207 39911224 39191286 38921363 38761437 38671526 Read more

MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern into North-Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252025Z - 252300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few clusters of storms should emerge by late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show persistent cumulus development in high terrain areas of southwestern into north-central Montana, with a few echoes now appearing on regional radar. This activity is developing in proximity to a cold front moving through the region, where surface heating and ample low-level moisture has allowed for destabilization coincident with upper-level forcing for ascent along the southern periphery of a mid-level trough. These factors are yielding MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Strong flow associated with the trough is also yielding a broad region of deep-layer shear overspreading the area, with effective bulk shear values of 30-40 kt. The convective trends noted above are expected to continue. The early convection, mainly over southwest Montana presently, is expected to move northeast and expand in coverage, resulting in scattered thunderstorms within a southwest to northeast oriented corridor over central Montana by late afternoon/early evening. A few clusters of storms may emerge with time. Strong low-level lapse rates (> 9 C/km) across the region and the aforementioned enhanced flow aloft should allow for strong to severe outflow winds, particularly with any clusters of storms that develop. Given this potential, watch issuance is possible for the region and convective trends will be monitored. ..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45490937 45021010 45091084 45671139 46561149 47451073 48280998 49110903 49100691 46840821 45490937 Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0560 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0560 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 25 21:35:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more