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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Maryland’s state fire marshal reminded Marylanders about fire safety and jurisdictional requirements when burning outdoors after the drought watch was issued. The Maryland Department of Natural Resources does enforce open-air burning regulations. Violators may be fined up to $1000 and/or one year in prison. The landowner can be charged with all the costs of extinguishing the fire. “Marylanders need to use caution when burning outdoors. Being responsible, attentive, and following established guidelines provided by local authorities can make a significant difference,” stated Acting State Fire Marshal Jason M. Mowbray. The Baynet.com (California, Md.), July 24, 2024

Wythe County was under a drought warning advisory by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality after record-low rain totals in June and July. WDBJ7 (Roanoke, Va.), July 25, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:33:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 15:22:48 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251432 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Since the time of the special advisory issued earlier this morning, the organization of Bud on satellite imagery has not changed much. The moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the cyclone appears to have diminished slightly. This has allowed the low-level center to be located underneath the central convective area. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 45 kt, while some of the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS objective estimates have also been around 45 kt. Given the 49-kt surface observation from Isla Clarion at 0930 UTC this morning, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. There have not been any significant changes to the general synoptic steering pattern. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The guidance has shifted notably north and faster with this cycle. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted about midway between the previous NHC forecast and the latest consensus track aids. As for the intensity forecast, Bud should be traversing sea-surface temperatures of around 26.5-27C over the next day or two, which is slightly cooler than the 28C waters that Bud is over currently. The vertical wind shear should be relatively low over the next couple of days. Bud will be gradually moving into a slightly drier airmass. The latest dynamical and hurricane intensity models weaken Bud more quickly than the statistical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the intensity consensus. This new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and keeps Bud a tropical storm a bit longer. Given that the global models show Bud becoming a remnant low rather quickly despite relatively favorable environmental conditions, the intensity forecast confidence is a bit lower than average during the first 48 h of the forecast. After that time, confidence is higher that the cyclone will be significantly weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 646 FOPZ12 KNHC 251431 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 647 WTPZ32 KNHC 251431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 115.7W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a slower west-southwestward motion late Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight or Friday, with faster weakening expected Friday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...BUD MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 18.3, -115.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 150 WTPZ22 KNHC 251431 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG