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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 24 20:47:02 UTC 2024.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:34:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 21:22:51 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 242032 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 242032 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 ...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 112.2W ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 112.2 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn to the west is expected tonight or early Thursday. A slower motion toward the southwest is expected by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with steady weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 24 the center of Bud was located near 17.1, -112.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more