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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

Sunflowers at Camp Creek State Park were devoured by deer this summer amid extremely dry weather. Growth of the flowers had been hindered by drought prior to the deer’s feast. The Mercer County Convention and Visitors Bureau wanted potential visitors to be aware that there were no sunflowers to admire this year as many make the long hike to see the field of blossoms each August. Bluefield Daily Telegraph (W.V.), July 24, 2024

The grass dried up and a creek also went dry, leading a Romney farmer to check on his cattle’s water supply every couple of days to make sure that they still had water. There were also wells available for water. Scarce precipitation was diminishing second cuttings of hay, which may lead to a shortage of hay in the winter. Hampshire Review (Romney, W.V.), July 24, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... The forecast remains on track. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected from eastern Oregon into southwest Montana. Some of these storms may produce strong to severe-caliber outflow winds. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 24 16:38:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWEST PA...AND FROM EASTERN OR/ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity this afternoon/evening, as well as across southern Arizona. ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. ..Thompson/Karstens.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWEST PA...AND FROM EASTERN OR/ID INTO WESTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity this afternoon/evening, as well as across southern Arizona. ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. ..Thompson/Karstens.. 07/24/2024 Read more