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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC REGION...ARIZONA...AND THE NORTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts from parts of Iowa/Illinois into Pennsylvania/New York. Other locally strong storms are possible in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and Mid Atlantic regions. ...IA/IL/IN... Large-scale troughing will amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave trough over MN digs into the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front will sag into the Mid MS an OH Valleys by afternoon, with very warm and humid conditions expected to the south of the front. All 00z model solutions agree on the development of afternoon storms along/ahead of the front from southeast IA into central IL/IN. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep lapse rates, and degree of CAPE suggest a threat of a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. ...PA/NY... As the aforementioned front sags into western NY, slightly enhanced southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen warm advection and lift over parts of eastern NY/PA. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storm clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. ...NC/VA... Deep west-southwesterly winds will strengthen by this afternoon along a corridor from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. This enhanced flow/shear profile will aid in helping to organize scattered diurnal thunderstorm development from western NC into parts of southern/eastern VA. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but strong heating and high PWAT values will promote a risk of a few intense storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...AZ... The upper ridge over the western states will remain centered over parts of NV/UT today, with 15-25 knots of northeasterly mid-level flow across central/eastern AZ. Meanwhile at the surface, considerable moisture is expected to spread northward from Baja CA into the lower deserts overnight, with dewpoints around 60s expected tomorrow. Most 00z CAM guidance suggests multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form along the eastern rim and mountains of eastern AZ, with steering flow helping to spread the storms westward into the moist air mass Wednesday evening. This may lead to a more active convective day over central/southern AZ, with damaging wind gusts possible. Will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, but trends will be monitored for possible upgrade to SLGT in later updates. ...Northwest... Relatively fast cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the Pacific Northwest states into the northern Great Basin. Water vapor imagery shows ample mid-level moisture in place from northern CA into southern OR, which should spread eastward and aid in afternoon thunderstorm development from OR into parts of ID/MT. Forecast soundings show weak CAPE, but a few of the stronger cells could produce locally gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC REGION...ARIZONA...AND THE NORTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts from parts of Iowa/Illinois into Pennsylvania/New York. Other locally strong storms are possible in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and Mid Atlantic regions. ...IA/IL/IN... Large-scale troughing will amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave trough over MN digs into the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front will sag into the Mid MS an OH Valleys by afternoon, with very warm and humid conditions expected to the south of the front. All 00z model solutions agree on the development of afternoon storms along/ahead of the front from southeast IA into central IL/IN. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep lapse rates, and degree of CAPE suggest a threat of a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. ...PA/NY... As the aforementioned front sags into western NY, slightly enhanced southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen warm advection and lift over parts of eastern NY/PA. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storm clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. ...NC/VA... Deep west-southwesterly winds will strengthen by this afternoon along a corridor from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. This enhanced flow/shear profile will aid in helping to organize scattered diurnal thunderstorm development from western NC into parts of southern/eastern VA. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but strong heating and high PWAT values will promote a risk of a few intense storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...AZ... The upper ridge over the western states will remain centered over parts of NV/UT today, with 15-25 knots of northeasterly mid-level flow across central/eastern AZ. Meanwhile at the surface, considerable moisture is expected to spread northward from Baja CA into the lower deserts overnight, with dewpoints around 60s expected tomorrow. Most 00z CAM guidance suggests multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form along the eastern rim and mountains of eastern AZ, with steering flow helping to spread the storms westward into the moist air mass Wednesday evening. This may lead to a more active convective day over central/southern AZ, with damaging wind gusts possible. Will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, but trends will be monitored for possible upgrade to SLGT in later updates. ...Northwest... Relatively fast cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the Pacific Northwest states into the northern Great Basin. Water vapor imagery shows ample mid-level moisture in place from northern CA into southern OR, which should spread eastward and aid in afternoon thunderstorm development from OR into parts of ID/MT. Forecast soundings show weak CAPE, but a few of the stronger cells could produce locally gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC REGION...ARIZONA...AND THE NORTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts from parts of Iowa/Illinois into Pennsylvania/New York. Other locally strong storms are possible in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and Mid Atlantic regions. ...IA/IL/IN... Large-scale troughing will amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave trough over MN digs into the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front will sag into the Mid MS an OH Valleys by afternoon, with very warm and humid conditions expected to the south of the front. All 00z model solutions agree on the development of afternoon storms along/ahead of the front from southeast IA into central IL/IN. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep lapse rates, and degree of CAPE suggest a threat of a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. ...PA/NY... As the aforementioned front sags into western NY, slightly enhanced southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen warm advection and lift over parts of eastern NY/PA. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storm clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. ...NC/VA... Deep west-southwesterly winds will strengthen by this afternoon along a corridor from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. This enhanced flow/shear profile will aid in helping to organize scattered diurnal thunderstorm development from western NC into parts of southern/eastern VA. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but strong heating and high PWAT values will promote a risk of a few intense storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...AZ... The upper ridge over the western states will remain centered over parts of NV/UT today, with 15-25 knots of northeasterly mid-level flow across central/eastern AZ. Meanwhile at the surface, considerable moisture is expected to spread northward from Baja CA into the lower deserts overnight, with dewpoints around 60s expected tomorrow. Most 00z CAM guidance suggests multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form along the eastern rim and mountains of eastern AZ, with steering flow helping to spread the storms westward into the moist air mass Wednesday evening. This may lead to a more active convective day over central/southern AZ, with damaging wind gusts possible. Will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, but trends will be monitored for possible upgrade to SLGT in later updates. ...Northwest... Relatively fast cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the Pacific Northwest states into the northern Great Basin. Water vapor imagery shows ample mid-level moisture in place from northern CA into southern OR, which should spread eastward and aid in afternoon thunderstorm development from OR into parts of ID/MT. Forecast soundings show weak CAPE, but a few of the stronger cells could produce locally gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC REGION...ARIZONA...AND THE NORTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts from parts of Iowa/Illinois into Pennsylvania/New York. Other locally strong storms are possible in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and Mid Atlantic regions. ...IA/IL/IN... Large-scale troughing will amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave trough over MN digs into the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front will sag into the Mid MS an OH Valleys by afternoon, with very warm and humid conditions expected to the south of the front. All 00z model solutions agree on the development of afternoon storms along/ahead of the front from southeast IA into central IL/IN. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep lapse rates, and degree of CAPE suggest a threat of a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. ...PA/NY... As the aforementioned front sags into western NY, slightly enhanced southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen warm advection and lift over parts of eastern NY/PA. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storm clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. ...NC/VA... Deep west-southwesterly winds will strengthen by this afternoon along a corridor from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. This enhanced flow/shear profile will aid in helping to organize scattered diurnal thunderstorm development from western NC into parts of southern/eastern VA. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but strong heating and high PWAT values will promote a risk of a few intense storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...AZ... The upper ridge over the western states will remain centered over parts of NV/UT today, with 15-25 knots of northeasterly mid-level flow across central/eastern AZ. Meanwhile at the surface, considerable moisture is expected to spread northward from Baja CA into the lower deserts overnight, with dewpoints around 60s expected tomorrow. Most 00z CAM guidance suggests multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form along the eastern rim and mountains of eastern AZ, with steering flow helping to spread the storms westward into the moist air mass Wednesday evening. This may lead to a more active convective day over central/southern AZ, with damaging wind gusts possible. Will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, but trends will be monitored for possible upgrade to SLGT in later updates. ...Northwest... Relatively fast cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the Pacific Northwest states into the northern Great Basin. Water vapor imagery shows ample mid-level moisture in place from northern CA into southern OR, which should spread eastward and aid in afternoon thunderstorm development from OR into parts of ID/MT. Forecast soundings show weak CAPE, but a few of the stronger cells could produce locally gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC REGION...ARIZONA...AND THE NORTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts from parts of Iowa/Illinois into Pennsylvania/New York. Other locally strong storms are possible in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and Mid Atlantic regions. ...IA/IL/IN... Large-scale troughing will amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave trough over MN digs into the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front will sag into the Mid MS an OH Valleys by afternoon, with very warm and humid conditions expected to the south of the front. All 00z model solutions agree on the development of afternoon storms along/ahead of the front from southeast IA into central IL/IN. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep lapse rates, and degree of CAPE suggest a threat of a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. ...PA/NY... As the aforementioned front sags into western NY, slightly enhanced southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen warm advection and lift over parts of eastern NY/PA. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storm clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. ...NC/VA... Deep west-southwesterly winds will strengthen by this afternoon along a corridor from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. This enhanced flow/shear profile will aid in helping to organize scattered diurnal thunderstorm development from western NC into parts of southern/eastern VA. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but strong heating and high PWAT values will promote a risk of a few intense storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...AZ... The upper ridge over the western states will remain centered over parts of NV/UT today, with 15-25 knots of northeasterly mid-level flow across central/eastern AZ. Meanwhile at the surface, considerable moisture is expected to spread northward from Baja CA into the lower deserts overnight, with dewpoints around 60s expected tomorrow. Most 00z CAM guidance suggests multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form along the eastern rim and mountains of eastern AZ, with steering flow helping to spread the storms westward into the moist air mass Wednesday evening. This may lead to a more active convective day over central/southern AZ, with damaging wind gusts possible. Will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, but trends will be monitored for possible upgrade to SLGT in later updates. ...Northwest... Relatively fast cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the Pacific Northwest states into the northern Great Basin. Water vapor imagery shows ample mid-level moisture in place from northern CA into southern OR, which should spread eastward and aid in afternoon thunderstorm development from OR into parts of ID/MT. Forecast soundings show weak CAPE, but a few of the stronger cells could produce locally gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC REGION...ARIZONA...AND THE NORTHWEST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts from parts of Iowa/Illinois into Pennsylvania/New York. Other locally strong storms are possible in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and Mid Atlantic regions. ...IA/IL/IN... Large-scale troughing will amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave trough over MN digs into the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front will sag into the Mid MS an OH Valleys by afternoon, with very warm and humid conditions expected to the south of the front. All 00z model solutions agree on the development of afternoon storms along/ahead of the front from southeast IA into central IL/IN. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep lapse rates, and degree of CAPE suggest a threat of a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. ...PA/NY... As the aforementioned front sags into western NY, slightly enhanced southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen warm advection and lift over parts of eastern NY/PA. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storm clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. ...NC/VA... Deep west-southwesterly winds will strengthen by this afternoon along a corridor from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. This enhanced flow/shear profile will aid in helping to organize scattered diurnal thunderstorm development from western NC into parts of southern/eastern VA. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor, but strong heating and high PWAT values will promote a risk of a few intense storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds. ...AZ... The upper ridge over the western states will remain centered over parts of NV/UT today, with 15-25 knots of northeasterly mid-level flow across central/eastern AZ. Meanwhile at the surface, considerable moisture is expected to spread northward from Baja CA into the lower deserts overnight, with dewpoints around 60s expected tomorrow. Most 00z CAM guidance suggests multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form along the eastern rim and mountains of eastern AZ, with steering flow helping to spread the storms westward into the moist air mass Wednesday evening. This may lead to a more active convective day over central/southern AZ, with damaging wind gusts possible. Will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, but trends will be monitored for possible upgrade to SLGT in later updates. ...Northwest... Relatively fast cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the Pacific Northwest states into the northern Great Basin. Water vapor imagery shows ample mid-level moisture in place from northern CA into southern OR, which should spread eastward and aid in afternoon thunderstorm development from OR into parts of ID/MT. Forecast soundings show weak CAPE, but a few of the stronger cells could produce locally gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 Read more

882
ABPZ20 KNHC 240502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions could allow for some slow development over
the next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Some of the corn in Bedford County was not able to produce ears. The loss of the crop will cost the farmer about $100,000. Recent rain has kept the corn alive, so the farmer will harvest the stalks for cattle feed. WSET-TV ABC 13 (Lynchburg, Va.), July 24, 2024 A Bedford County dairy farmer estimated that he lost two-thirds of his corn crop and would not be useable this year. The corn was planted in April and has not received significant rain since mid-May. WSET-TV ABC 13 (Lynchburg, Va.), July 7, 2024

Drought came at a bad time in the growing cycle for Beaufort County corn when it was determining yield and requiring a lot of water. Some fields of corn died, while other fields had pollination significantly affected by the lack of moisture. Some ears of corn were just two to three inches long when they ought to be 12 to 13 inches in length. Soybeans were blooming and producing pods, but the dryness caused the pods to fall to the ground. Tobacco and cotton were also suffering from the lack of precipitation. Washington Daily News (N.C.), July 24, 2024 A corn grower in Beaufort County stated that most of his corn would be a total loss after being stressed from going without moisture for so long. WITN-TV NBC 7 Greenville (N.C.), June 27, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and Desert Southwest this evening. ...VA/NC... Clusters of thunderstorms persist this evening across portions of central VA into central NC, in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. A localized strong/severe gust may still occur with these storms for another hour or two, before diurnal cooling stabilizes the environment. ...AZ/CA... Scattered thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southeast CA and western AZ this afternoon and early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows a region that remains mostly clear and ahead of a more organized MCS/outflow over western AZ. This region may still experience locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this evening. ..Hart.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and Desert Southwest this evening. ...VA/NC... Clusters of thunderstorms persist this evening across portions of central VA into central NC, in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. A localized strong/severe gust may still occur with these storms for another hour or two, before diurnal cooling stabilizes the environment. ...AZ/CA... Scattered thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southeast CA and western AZ this afternoon and early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows a region that remains mostly clear and ahead of a more organized MCS/outflow over western AZ. This region may still experience locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this evening. ..Hart.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and Desert Southwest this evening. ...VA/NC... Clusters of thunderstorms persist this evening across portions of central VA into central NC, in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. A localized strong/severe gust may still occur with these storms for another hour or two, before diurnal cooling stabilizes the environment. ...AZ/CA... Scattered thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southeast CA and western AZ this afternoon and early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows a region that remains mostly clear and ahead of a more organized MCS/outflow over western AZ. This region may still experience locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this evening. ..Hart.. 07/24/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have changed little in organization during the day. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some slow development over the
next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 23 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 23 22:46:02 UTC 2024.