Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith.. 07/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico have changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow
development over the next couple of days while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ...Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ..Wendt.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith/Barnes.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States... Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe hazard. ...IA into northern IL... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early to mid evening. ...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith/Barnes.. 07/23/2024 Read more