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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will gradually break down under the influence of a deepening Pacific trough entrenched over the Northwest. Strong mid-level flow moving onshore will aid in mid-level destabilization, supporting scattered to widespread thunderstorms and the potential for significant lightning Wed afternoon and evening. Dry downslope winds are also possible in the lee of the Cascades supporting elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Great Basin Northwest and the northern Rockies... A widespread and potentially significant lightning event appears possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies Wed and Wed night. As the upper trough over the northwest continues to deepen, weak height falls and stronger flow aloft will gradually overspread the Intermountain West. Diurnal heating with increasing mid-level moisture (PWATs of 0.8-1 in) will support elevated buoyancy atop deep and well-mixed boundary layers. In addition to the very dry sub-cloud layer, mean storm motions of 35-40 kt suggest poor to very poor precipitation efficiency. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely by early to mid afternoon ahead of a weak cold front and across the higher terrain of eastern OR, central ID and west-central MT. Storm coverage should gradually increase through the afternoon and evening as storms move east/northeast into the northern Rockies. Scattered to numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and occasional strong downdrafts will be possible over areas of very dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Critical Dry Thunder probabilities. In addition to the Critical risk for lightning, increasing flow aloft twill support gusty downslope winds and low RH in the lee of the Cascades. Very warm temperatures and wind gusts of 15-25 mph will overlap with RH below 20% across the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Gaps, as well as across western MT. With numerous ongoing fires and robust fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Wed. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will gradually break down under the influence of a deepening Pacific trough entrenched over the Northwest. Strong mid-level flow moving onshore will aid in mid-level destabilization, supporting scattered to widespread thunderstorms and the potential for significant lightning Wed afternoon and evening. Dry downslope winds are also possible in the lee of the Cascades supporting elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Great Basin Northwest and the northern Rockies... A widespread and potentially significant lightning event appears possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies Wed and Wed night. As the upper trough over the northwest continues to deepen, weak height falls and stronger flow aloft will gradually overspread the Intermountain West. Diurnal heating with increasing mid-level moisture (PWATs of 0.8-1 in) will support elevated buoyancy atop deep and well-mixed boundary layers. In addition to the very dry sub-cloud layer, mean storm motions of 35-40 kt suggest poor to very poor precipitation efficiency. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely by early to mid afternoon ahead of a weak cold front and across the higher terrain of eastern OR, central ID and west-central MT. Storm coverage should gradually increase through the afternoon and evening as storms move east/northeast into the northern Rockies. Scattered to numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and occasional strong downdrafts will be possible over areas of very dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Critical Dry Thunder probabilities. In addition to the Critical risk for lightning, increasing flow aloft twill support gusty downslope winds and low RH in the lee of the Cascades. Very warm temperatures and wind gusts of 15-25 mph will overlap with RH below 20% across the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Gaps, as well as across western MT. With numerous ongoing fires and robust fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Wed. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Northwest will remain in place west of a weakening upper ridge centered across the northern Rockies. Stronger flow aloft will gradually overspread the Northwest and northern Rockies through the week. Isolated dry thunderstorms and gusty downslope winds will promote elevated fire-weather potential today and tonight. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Lingering mid-level moisture ahead of the consolidating Pacific trough will again support the risk for thunderstorms across the Northwest and northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. While weaker than previous days, subtle ascent and diurnal heating over the terrain should allow for isolated storms to develop across parts of the northern Great Basin and Northwest by early afternoon. Low precipitation efficiency, owing to PWATs under 1 inch, and low surface RH will support the risk for lightning with little to no wetting rainfall. With area fuels still receptive to ignitions, IsoDryT probabilities have been maintained. West/southwest flow aloft is forecast to increase over the northern Rockies and Cascade Gaps ahead of the trough. This may promote several hours of gusty downslope winds across parts of eastern ID and western MT. Model guidance shows surface winds of 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 25%. This, along with the increase in lightning and numerous ongoing fires, will support the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Northwest will remain in place west of a weakening upper ridge centered across the northern Rockies. Stronger flow aloft will gradually overspread the Northwest and northern Rockies through the week. Isolated dry thunderstorms and gusty downslope winds will promote elevated fire-weather potential today and tonight. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Lingering mid-level moisture ahead of the consolidating Pacific trough will again support the risk for thunderstorms across the Northwest and northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. While weaker than previous days, subtle ascent and diurnal heating over the terrain should allow for isolated storms to develop across parts of the northern Great Basin and Northwest by early afternoon. Low precipitation efficiency, owing to PWATs under 1 inch, and low surface RH will support the risk for lightning with little to no wetting rainfall. With area fuels still receptive to ignitions, IsoDryT probabilities have been maintained. West/southwest flow aloft is forecast to increase over the northern Rockies and Cascade Gaps ahead of the trough. This may promote several hours of gusty downslope winds across parts of eastern ID and western MT. Model guidance shows surface winds of 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 25%. This, along with the increase in lightning and numerous ongoing fires, will support the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Northwest will remain in place west of a weakening upper ridge centered across the northern Rockies. Stronger flow aloft will gradually overspread the Northwest and northern Rockies through the week. Isolated dry thunderstorms and gusty downslope winds will promote elevated fire-weather potential today and tonight. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Lingering mid-level moisture ahead of the consolidating Pacific trough will again support the risk for thunderstorms across the Northwest and northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. While weaker than previous days, subtle ascent and diurnal heating over the terrain should allow for isolated storms to develop across parts of the northern Great Basin and Northwest by early afternoon. Low precipitation efficiency, owing to PWATs under 1 inch, and low surface RH will support the risk for lightning with little to no wetting rainfall. With area fuels still receptive to ignitions, IsoDryT probabilities have been maintained. West/southwest flow aloft is forecast to increase over the northern Rockies and Cascade Gaps ahead of the trough. This may promote several hours of gusty downslope winds across parts of eastern ID and western MT. Model guidance shows surface winds of 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 25%. This, along with the increase in lightning and numerous ongoing fires, will support the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the Northwest will remain in place west of a weakening upper ridge centered across the northern Rockies. Stronger flow aloft will gradually overspread the Northwest and northern Rockies through the week. Isolated dry thunderstorms and gusty downslope winds will promote elevated fire-weather potential today and tonight. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Lingering mid-level moisture ahead of the consolidating Pacific trough will again support the risk for thunderstorms across the Northwest and northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. While weaker than previous days, subtle ascent and diurnal heating over the terrain should allow for isolated storms to develop across parts of the northern Great Basin and Northwest by early afternoon. Low precipitation efficiency, owing to PWATs under 1 inch, and low surface RH will support the risk for lightning with little to no wetting rainfall. With area fuels still receptive to ignitions, IsoDryT probabilities have been maintained. West/southwest flow aloft is forecast to increase over the northern Rockies and Cascade Gaps ahead of the trough. This may promote several hours of gusty downslope winds across parts of eastern ID and western MT. Model guidance shows surface winds of 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 25%. This, along with the increase in lightning and numerous ongoing fires, will support the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the upper Great Lakes will develop eastward toward the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, the sub-tropical high over the western Atlantic will scoot westward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. This will result in an increasing/tightening height gradient across the Northeast as the upper trough develops east, and southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Further west, an upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while an upper anticyclone persists over the Southwest. As the Pacific Northwest trough moves east, an upper ridge will overspread the central Rockies to the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low will track northeast from the Lake Huron vicinity into southern Quebec. A trailing cold front will sag south/southeast across northern IL/IN/OH/PA and western NY during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend southwest across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity into central NC. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface cold front and near the surface trough, aiding in at least weak to moderate destabilization. These boundaries also will focus thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening hours. Further west, a baroclinic zone will exist over the northern Plains as a surface low deepens over the Canadian Prairies and high pressure builds over the upper Great Lakes. South/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for 60s F dewpoints across central/eastern portions of the Dakotas. However, capping within the amplifying upper ridge will likely preclude thunderstorm development. ...Northern OH/PA into NY... Increasing mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will support around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes by afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but heating into the 80s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will allow for MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. Stronger height falls will likely not occur until around/after 00z, somewhat misaligned with peak heating. Nevertheless, increasing vertical shear and modest large-scale ascent, coupled with the approaching cold front should support at least isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elongated hodographs and modest vertically veering wind profiles suggest organized cells, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics, will be possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts. A couple of the strongest cells may produce marginal hail. ...Southeast VA into central/eastern NC... Thunderstorms are expected to develop within a very moist and unstable airmass Wednesday afternoon. While midlevel flow will gradually increase, vertical shear will remain marginal for organized convection, especially until after 00z. Given the high PW/moderately unstable airmass, a wet microburst or two will be possible. However, modest vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates preclude severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the upper Great Lakes will develop eastward toward the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, the sub-tropical high over the western Atlantic will scoot westward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. This will result in an increasing/tightening height gradient across the Northeast as the upper trough develops east, and southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Further west, an upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while an upper anticyclone persists over the Southwest. As the Pacific Northwest trough moves east, an upper ridge will overspread the central Rockies to the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low will track northeast from the Lake Huron vicinity into southern Quebec. A trailing cold front will sag south/southeast across northern IL/IN/OH/PA and western NY during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend southwest across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity into central NC. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface cold front and near the surface trough, aiding in at least weak to moderate destabilization. These boundaries also will focus thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening hours. Further west, a baroclinic zone will exist over the northern Plains as a surface low deepens over the Canadian Prairies and high pressure builds over the upper Great Lakes. South/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for 60s F dewpoints across central/eastern portions of the Dakotas. However, capping within the amplifying upper ridge will likely preclude thunderstorm development. ...Northern OH/PA into NY... Increasing mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will support around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes by afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but heating into the 80s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will allow for MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. Stronger height falls will likely not occur until around/after 00z, somewhat misaligned with peak heating. Nevertheless, increasing vertical shear and modest large-scale ascent, coupled with the approaching cold front should support at least isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elongated hodographs and modest vertically veering wind profiles suggest organized cells, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics, will be possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts. A couple of the strongest cells may produce marginal hail. ...Southeast VA into central/eastern NC... Thunderstorms are expected to develop within a very moist and unstable airmass Wednesday afternoon. While midlevel flow will gradually increase, vertical shear will remain marginal for organized convection, especially until after 00z. Given the high PW/moderately unstable airmass, a wet microburst or two will be possible. However, modest vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates preclude severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the upper Great Lakes will develop eastward toward the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, the sub-tropical high over the western Atlantic will scoot westward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. This will result in an increasing/tightening height gradient across the Northeast as the upper trough develops east, and southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Further west, an upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while an upper anticyclone persists over the Southwest. As the Pacific Northwest trough moves east, an upper ridge will overspread the central Rockies to the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low will track northeast from the Lake Huron vicinity into southern Quebec. A trailing cold front will sag south/southeast across northern IL/IN/OH/PA and western NY during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend southwest across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity into central NC. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface cold front and near the surface trough, aiding in at least weak to moderate destabilization. These boundaries also will focus thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening hours. Further west, a baroclinic zone will exist over the northern Plains as a surface low deepens over the Canadian Prairies and high pressure builds over the upper Great Lakes. South/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for 60s F dewpoints across central/eastern portions of the Dakotas. However, capping within the amplifying upper ridge will likely preclude thunderstorm development. ...Northern OH/PA into NY... Increasing mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will support around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes by afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but heating into the 80s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will allow for MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. Stronger height falls will likely not occur until around/after 00z, somewhat misaligned with peak heating. Nevertheless, increasing vertical shear and modest large-scale ascent, coupled with the approaching cold front should support at least isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elongated hodographs and modest vertically veering wind profiles suggest organized cells, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics, will be possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts. A couple of the strongest cells may produce marginal hail. ...Southeast VA into central/eastern NC... Thunderstorms are expected to develop within a very moist and unstable airmass Wednesday afternoon. While midlevel flow will gradually increase, vertical shear will remain marginal for organized convection, especially until after 00z. Given the high PW/moderately unstable airmass, a wet microburst or two will be possible. However, modest vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates preclude severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the upper Great Lakes will develop eastward toward the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, the sub-tropical high over the western Atlantic will scoot westward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. This will result in an increasing/tightening height gradient across the Northeast as the upper trough develops east, and southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Further west, an upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while an upper anticyclone persists over the Southwest. As the Pacific Northwest trough moves east, an upper ridge will overspread the central Rockies to the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low will track northeast from the Lake Huron vicinity into southern Quebec. A trailing cold front will sag south/southeast across northern IL/IN/OH/PA and western NY during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend southwest across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity into central NC. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface cold front and near the surface trough, aiding in at least weak to moderate destabilization. These boundaries also will focus thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening hours. Further west, a baroclinic zone will exist over the northern Plains as a surface low deepens over the Canadian Prairies and high pressure builds over the upper Great Lakes. South/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for 60s F dewpoints across central/eastern portions of the Dakotas. However, capping within the amplifying upper ridge will likely preclude thunderstorm development. ...Northern OH/PA into NY... Increasing mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will support around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes by afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but heating into the 80s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will allow for MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. Stronger height falls will likely not occur until around/after 00z, somewhat misaligned with peak heating. Nevertheless, increasing vertical shear and modest large-scale ascent, coupled with the approaching cold front should support at least isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elongated hodographs and modest vertically veering wind profiles suggest organized cells, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics, will be possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts. A couple of the strongest cells may produce marginal hail. ...Southeast VA into central/eastern NC... Thunderstorms are expected to develop within a very moist and unstable airmass Wednesday afternoon. While midlevel flow will gradually increase, vertical shear will remain marginal for organized convection, especially until after 00z. Given the high PW/moderately unstable airmass, a wet microburst or two will be possible. However, modest vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates preclude severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper-level pattern will change little on Tuesday, with a pronounced anticyclone over much of the West, and a trough from the Great Lakes northeast into eastern Canada. A weak surface front will extend from near the Delmarva Peninsula southwest into central TX, and serve as a focus for more concentrated showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, another weak/slow-moving front will extend from the Great Lakes into the Dakotas. Although no severe probabilities are introduced with this outlook, some localized severe potential is possible, and highlighted below. ...Mid-Atlantic/southeast... The air mass over much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic states near and south of the front Tuesday will remain very moist with PW values in excess of 2 inches, contributing to moderate MLCAPE by afternoon. Although a modest increase in mid-level flow is forecast from the southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, low-level flow will remain weak. Additionally, the lack of a well-defined impulse embedded within the mid-level flow suggests that any severe risk, likely in the form of strong/damaging gusts, should remain localized in nature. ...Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern WI across IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some locations. Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front, however deep-layer shear should generally remain at or below 25 kts for much of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will exist with any stronger storm, but overall confidence in introducing a severe risk area remains low. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again Tuesday, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Despite very hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, overall confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than localized strong/damaging gusts is too low to introduce a severe risk area. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper-level pattern will change little on Tuesday, with a pronounced anticyclone over much of the West, and a trough from the Great Lakes northeast into eastern Canada. A weak surface front will extend from near the Delmarva Peninsula southwest into central TX, and serve as a focus for more concentrated showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, another weak/slow-moving front will extend from the Great Lakes into the Dakotas. Although no severe probabilities are introduced with this outlook, some localized severe potential is possible, and highlighted below. ...Mid-Atlantic/southeast... The air mass over much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic states near and south of the front Tuesday will remain very moist with PW values in excess of 2 inches, contributing to moderate MLCAPE by afternoon. Although a modest increase in mid-level flow is forecast from the southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, low-level flow will remain weak. Additionally, the lack of a well-defined impulse embedded within the mid-level flow suggests that any severe risk, likely in the form of strong/damaging gusts, should remain localized in nature. ...Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern WI across IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some locations. Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front, however deep-layer shear should generally remain at or below 25 kts for much of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will exist with any stronger storm, but overall confidence in introducing a severe risk area remains low. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again Tuesday, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Despite very hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, overall confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than localized strong/damaging gusts is too low to introduce a severe risk area. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper-level pattern will change little on Tuesday, with a pronounced anticyclone over much of the West, and a trough from the Great Lakes northeast into eastern Canada. A weak surface front will extend from near the Delmarva Peninsula southwest into central TX, and serve as a focus for more concentrated showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, another weak/slow-moving front will extend from the Great Lakes into the Dakotas. Although no severe probabilities are introduced with this outlook, some localized severe potential is possible, and highlighted below. ...Mid-Atlantic/southeast... The air mass over much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic states near and south of the front Tuesday will remain very moist with PW values in excess of 2 inches, contributing to moderate MLCAPE by afternoon. Although a modest increase in mid-level flow is forecast from the southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, low-level flow will remain weak. Additionally, the lack of a well-defined impulse embedded within the mid-level flow suggests that any severe risk, likely in the form of strong/damaging gusts, should remain localized in nature. ...Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern WI across IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some locations. Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front, however deep-layer shear should generally remain at or below 25 kts for much of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will exist with any stronger storm, but overall confidence in introducing a severe risk area remains low. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again Tuesday, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Despite very hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, overall confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than localized strong/damaging gusts is too low to introduce a severe risk area. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper-level pattern will change little on Tuesday, with a pronounced anticyclone over much of the West, and a trough from the Great Lakes northeast into eastern Canada. A weak surface front will extend from near the Delmarva Peninsula southwest into central TX, and serve as a focus for more concentrated showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, another weak/slow-moving front will extend from the Great Lakes into the Dakotas. Although no severe probabilities are introduced with this outlook, some localized severe potential is possible, and highlighted below. ...Mid-Atlantic/southeast... The air mass over much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic states near and south of the front Tuesday will remain very moist with PW values in excess of 2 inches, contributing to moderate MLCAPE by afternoon. Although a modest increase in mid-level flow is forecast from the southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, low-level flow will remain weak. Additionally, the lack of a well-defined impulse embedded within the mid-level flow suggests that any severe risk, likely in the form of strong/damaging gusts, should remain localized in nature. ...Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern WI across IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some locations. Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front, however deep-layer shear should generally remain at or below 25 kts for much of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will exist with any stronger storm, but overall confidence in introducing a severe risk area remains low. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again Tuesday, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Despite very hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, overall confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than localized strong/damaging gusts is too low to introduce a severe risk area. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper-level pattern will change little on Tuesday, with a pronounced anticyclone over much of the West, and a trough from the Great Lakes northeast into eastern Canada. A weak surface front will extend from near the Delmarva Peninsula southwest into central TX, and serve as a focus for more concentrated showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, another weak/slow-moving front will extend from the Great Lakes into the Dakotas. Although no severe probabilities are introduced with this outlook, some localized severe potential is possible, and highlighted below. ...Mid-Atlantic/southeast... The air mass over much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic states near and south of the front Tuesday will remain very moist with PW values in excess of 2 inches, contributing to moderate MLCAPE by afternoon. Although a modest increase in mid-level flow is forecast from the southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, low-level flow will remain weak. Additionally, the lack of a well-defined impulse embedded within the mid-level flow suggests that any severe risk, likely in the form of strong/damaging gusts, should remain localized in nature. ...Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern WI across IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some locations. Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front, however deep-layer shear should generally remain at or below 25 kts for much of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will exist with any stronger storm, but overall confidence in introducing a severe risk area remains low. ...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again Tuesday, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Despite very hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, overall confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than localized strong/damaging gusts is too low to introduce a severe risk area. ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves
generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days, remaining
offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible early this evening over portions of North Dakota, southern and eastern North Carolina, as well as western Arizona to the lower Colorado River Valley. ...North Dakota... A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms continued moving south across eastern ND at 01z, with a history of severe hail and wind gusts. A weak mid-level impulse continues to provide subtle large-scale ascent as it moves southeast near the international border, and the downstream environment will remain strongly unstable for the next few hours. With around 30 kts of deep-layer shear, sufficient storm organization is expected to persist for a continued severe threat through the remainder of this evening. ...Western Arizona and Vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms continue moving generally south within a weakly buoyant environment with a well-mixed boundary layer (LCL heights over 3500 meters). Storms have not shown a tendency to cluster thus far, however any merging outflows that can develop will have severe wind potential through this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Have trimmed the Marginal Risk and associated wind/tornado probabilities to in the immediate vicinity of the storms extending from near Elizabeth City (KECG) to Clinton NC (KCTZ). Latest mesoanalysis shows moderate bouyancy and 30-40 kts of shear in the near-storm environment. Occasional weak/transient cyclonic shear has been noted in a couple of these storms, and effective SRH of 100 m2/s2 would support some continued (though low probability) risk for a brief tornado or gusty winds this evening. ..Bunting.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible early this evening over portions of North Dakota, southern and eastern North Carolina, as well as western Arizona to the lower Colorado River Valley. ...North Dakota... A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms continued moving south across eastern ND at 01z, with a history of severe hail and wind gusts. A weak mid-level impulse continues to provide subtle large-scale ascent as it moves southeast near the international border, and the downstream environment will remain strongly unstable for the next few hours. With around 30 kts of deep-layer shear, sufficient storm organization is expected to persist for a continued severe threat through the remainder of this evening. ...Western Arizona and Vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms continue moving generally south within a weakly buoyant environment with a well-mixed boundary layer (LCL heights over 3500 meters). Storms have not shown a tendency to cluster thus far, however any merging outflows that can develop will have severe wind potential through this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Have trimmed the Marginal Risk and associated wind/tornado probabilities to in the immediate vicinity of the storms extending from near Elizabeth City (KECG) to Clinton NC (KCTZ). Latest mesoanalysis shows moderate bouyancy and 30-40 kts of shear in the near-storm environment. Occasional weak/transient cyclonic shear has been noted in a couple of these storms, and effective SRH of 100 m2/s2 would support some continued (though low probability) risk for a brief tornado or gusty winds this evening. ..Bunting.. 07/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible early this evening over portions of North Dakota, southern and eastern North Carolina, as well as western Arizona to the lower Colorado River Valley. ...North Dakota... A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms continued moving south across eastern ND at 01z, with a history of severe hail and wind gusts. A weak mid-level impulse continues to provide subtle large-scale ascent as it moves southeast near the international border, and the downstream environment will remain strongly unstable for the next few hours. With around 30 kts of deep-layer shear, sufficient storm organization is expected to persist for a continued severe threat through the remainder of this evening. ...Western Arizona and Vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms continue moving generally south within a weakly buoyant environment with a well-mixed boundary layer (LCL heights over 3500 meters). Storms have not shown a tendency to cluster thus far, however any merging outflows that can develop will have severe wind potential through this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Have trimmed the Marginal Risk and associated wind/tornado probabilities to in the immediate vicinity of the storms extending from near Elizabeth City (KECG) to Clinton NC (KCTZ). Latest mesoanalysis shows moderate bouyancy and 30-40 kts of shear in the near-storm environment. Occasional weak/transient cyclonic shear has been noted in a couple of these storms, and effective SRH of 100 m2/s2 would support some continued (though low probability) risk for a brief tornado or gusty winds this evening. ..Bunting.. 07/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical
wave. This system has become a little better organized today, and
some further development is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the next couple of days, remaining offshore
of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch