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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon. Read more

MD 1701 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241943Z - 242045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase throughout the afternoon, with severe wind gusts possible. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows convective development occurring along the Rim and adjacent mountains in southeast Arizona. Strong surface heating across the region is resulting in temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s F. Ample low-level moisture, characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s F near the Rim and near 60 F farther southwest, along the aforementioned heating is resulting in rapid destabilization, with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Despite generally weak shear, strong low-level lapse rates of 9-9.5 C/km characteristic of inverted-V profiles will promote strong outflow winds that should exceed severe limits once storms mature and become more widespread. With the early onset the convective development and supportive thermal profiles, storms are expected to last for several hours and eventually congeal into a few clusters, prolonging the threat over region. Given this anticipated time/space coverage, watch issuance is likely. ..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31730917 31270950 31271107 31921304 34551297 35451189 35371075 34320915 32760909 31730917 Read more

MD 1700 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WEST-CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Areas affected...Central Illinois...Central Indiana...and West-Central Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241806Z - 242000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated threat for severe wind/hail with the strongest cells, watch unlikely. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few remnant convective clusters moving southeast in concert with an east-west oriented cold front across the region. Ahead of this activity, surface heating has led to destabilization within the warm sector, with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg. Satellite/radar shows additional convective cells beginning to develop, mostly along the front. This activity is expected to continue developing over the next few hours with some expansion in coverage. Higher values effective bulk shear generally remain displaced to the north behind the front, and therefore given the proximate weak shear environment, storms are anticipated to remain generally disorganized and watch issuance appears unlikely. That said, relatively strong low-level lapse rates (near 8.5 C/km) may promote a few damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells, along with some potential for severe hail. ..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 40978930 40928826 40638660 40768497 40718322 40318308 39958386 39478490 39448495 39428543 39588878 40019016 40709031 40978930 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241907
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure
system offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico (EP93).

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing winds to tropical storm force
south and east of its center. The associated showers and
thunderstorms have also increased in organization during the day,
and if this activity continues, then advisories would likely be
initiated on a tropical storm later this afternoon. The low is
forecast to move westward around 15 mph, away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located more than one thousand miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula remains disorganized. Development
of this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0812 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1699 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Areas affected...Western New York and far northern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241730Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to mature across western New York and northern Pennsylvania this afternoon. Continued heating and low-level moisture advection will increase instability this afternoon, peaking around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The BUF VWP shows around 30 knots of effective shear which will support some updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with isolated large hail possible. A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear imminent, but if several stronger updrafts can congeal and mature, a small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon/early evening. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... LAT...LON 42047682 41927726 41637878 41957996 42128019 42407954 42767891 43097905 43497844 43417721 43467639 43057626 42357657 42047682 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized today. This system could become a
short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two before
it reaches an environment that is less favorable for development.
The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located more than one thousand miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula remains disorganized. Development
of this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...MONTANA...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce locally damaging gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Montana, and Arizona on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies through the day into the evening. This trough will result in some deamplification of the upper-level ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains. A nearly stationary mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across TX into the lower MS Valley. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas into New England... A surface low attendant to the upper-level trough will move across Quebec during the day, as a cold front moves across New England and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic. Rather extensive cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, but some potential for modest destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) is evident across parts of the Mid Atlantic, where relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization. A few stronger storms will be possible along/ahead of the front, with potential for isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. Farther north, despite generally limited heating, some modest destabilization will also be possible into parts of Maine, as cooler temperatures aloft attendant to the shortwave trough overspread the region. Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization; however, storms may struggle to mature in the absence of stronger heating/instability. Depending on trends regarding heating/destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of Maine. Farther south, a separate area of strong storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NC, to the south of an area of convection that is expected Thursday morning from southeast VA into central NC. However, with deep-layer flow/shear somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time. ...Northern Great Basin into Montana... High-based convection will again be possible from parts of the northern Great Basin into Montana on Thursday, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer flow/shear will likely be somewhat stronger across parts of MT, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A 5% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in a somewhat organized threat of strong to severe gusts. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the northern Great Basin, but isolated strong to locally severe outflow gusts cannot be ruled out across this region as well. ...Arizona... Midlevel flow may be slightly weaker across parts of Arizona compared to D1/Wednesday, but otherwise a similar regime will be in place, with scattered thunderstorm development possible initially across the higher terrain, and some potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds to spread southwestward toward the desert floor during the evening. If extensive convection occurs during the D1/Wednesday period, then the magnitude of instability and the severe threat may be comparatively reduced on Thursday, but the potential for isolated severe gusts appears sufficient to introduce a 5% wind area. ...Parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coast into the lower MS Valley... Extensive convection is expected to continue into Thursday across parts of the TX/LA Gulf Coasts into parts of the lower MS Valley, in association with the slow-moving upper-level trough over the region. Very rich moisture and some modest enhancement to low/midlevel flow could support a couple briefly organized storms, and an isolated damaging gust and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. However, any organized severe threat across the region appears rather nebulous and uncertain at this time. ..Dean.. 07/24/2024 Read more