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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 20:38:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 21:22:40 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262036 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud has failed to produce any organized deep convection near its low-level center during the last 18 hours or so. Therefore, it no longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and Bud is being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with this advisory. The intensity estimate is a little uncertain because of the lack of recent scatterometer data, but subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are around 25-32 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward for the remainder of today. Over the weekend, the post-tropical low and its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. Gradual weakening is forecast as the shallow cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in a drier, more stable environment. While some intermittent bursts of convection could occur during the next couple of days, this should not stop the overall weakening trend. This is the last NHC advisory on Bud. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 262036 PWSEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...BUD BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 the center of Bud was located near 19.2, -120.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 976 WTPZ22 KNHC 262035 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 120.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...20z Update... Visible satellite shows cumulus development across the Black Hills in South Dakota, with warming temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front. Across much of central and eastern North and South Dakota, skies are mostly sunny with a few high clouds and strong mid-level capping in place. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening as a mid-level wave moves eastward, aiding in reducing inhibition. Storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, though uncertainty remains in how many robust thunderstorms will develop. The Marginal Risk area covers this threat well. Thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon/evening across the Great Basin into the Southwest, where well a mixed boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a Marginal risk of strong to severe wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. Overall, trends are as expected with no changes needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 26 19:52:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more