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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. ..Gleason/Mosier.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
or latter part of next week. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more