Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Primary change to the Day 2 (Sunday) Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights southeastward into central and southeastern Montana, as well as northern and eastern Wyoming. Fuels are critically receptive to fire spread in these areas, driven in part by drought conditions. While recent rainfall has occurred in the past week, and a few storms may produce locally wetting rainfall on Day 1 (today), this precipitation will not likely dampen fuels enough to eliminate wildfire-growth potential for tomorrow. The latest guidance consensus shows fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms moving across the central and northern Rockies atop a well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v soundings extending above 700 mb. Some of these storms may produce strong, erratic wind gusts that can exacerbate wildfire growth, and severe gusts cannot be ruled out (see the Day 2 Convective Outlook for more details on severe thunderstorms). The combination of critically receptive fuels, and at least a few dry thunderstorms with strong to severe wind gusts, warrants the expansion of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights, even if some preceding fuels dampening takes place. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Primary change to the Day 2 (Sunday) Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights southeastward into central and southeastern Montana, as well as northern and eastern Wyoming. Fuels are critically receptive to fire spread in these areas, driven in part by drought conditions. While recent rainfall has occurred in the past week, and a few storms may produce locally wetting rainfall on Day 1 (today), this precipitation will not likely dampen fuels enough to eliminate wildfire-growth potential for tomorrow. The latest guidance consensus shows fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms moving across the central and northern Rockies atop a well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v soundings extending above 700 mb. Some of these storms may produce strong, erratic wind gusts that can exacerbate wildfire growth, and severe gusts cannot be ruled out (see the Day 2 Convective Outlook for more details on severe thunderstorms). The combination of critically receptive fuels, and at least a few dry thunderstorms with strong to severe wind gusts, warrants the expansion of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights, even if some preceding fuels dampening takes place. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more