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Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 873 WTPZ44 KNHC 052033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 A recent ASCAT-B pass over Daniel this afternoon revealed that Daniel barely has a closed circulation and its maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt, making Daniel a tropical depression. Daniel's convective organization is also lacking, but it has produced persistent deep convection over its center for the past several hours. Little change was made to the NHC forecast. Daniel should weaken and wrap cyclonically around the larger and more robust circulation of Carlotta during the next couple of days. Global models indicate that Daniel could open into a trough at any time, Even if it maintains its circulation, its unlikely to maintain its organized deep convection beyond tonight. Therefore the largest change in the NHC forecast is to show Daniel becoming a remnant low tonight or early tomorrow and dissipating soon after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.3N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.4N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 126.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 126.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.3N 125.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Daniel Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DANIEL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 126.9W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Daniel was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 126.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. Daniel is forecast to turn toward the northwest by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Daniel is forecast to weaken further and become a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano

...DANIEL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Daniel was located near 16.2, -126.9 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X 18(18) 26(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...FABIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 108.1W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 108.1 West. Fabio is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a faster forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected this afternoon and tonight. After that, Fabio is expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FABIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Fabio was located near 15.6, -108.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND NEAR COASTAL COUNTIES OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...coastal and near coastal counties of Georgia and South Carolina. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051849Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be needed later this afternoon in coastal areas across eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. DISCUSSION...Instability has mostly struggled to move inland within the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby where persistent stratiform rain has been present all day. A push of higher moisture content and greater instability is advancing toward the Georgia/South Carolina coast. This may result in a greater threat for cellular convection and stronger updrafts late this afternoon and this evening. Any storms which can develop would pose a tornado threat given the favorable wind shear sampled by the JAX VWP. In addition, the low-level hodograph is starting to elongate at CLX, with this increasing low-level shear expected to advance up the coast this evening and into the overnight hours. With tornado watch 596 expiring at 20Z, a new tornado watch will be issued for portions of coastal South Carolina and parts of Coastal Georgia. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...JAX... LAT...LON 31978066 31278111 30698135 30438153 30768182 31158185 31458176 32618127 33228028 33787963 33887905 33847864 33617866 33237899 32947920 32428005 31978066 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more