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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more