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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 665 WTPZ41 KNHC 052111 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of Fabio is on the north side of an area of strong, but loosely curved, convective bands. Scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data received since the last advisory indicate that the circulation is closed and that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in the eastern semicircle. This is in good agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and it is the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is now 310/13 kt. Fabio's motion should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and westward at an increased forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next 36-48 h. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Some strengthening should occur in the next 12 h or so. After that, the intensity forecast is mainly based on the global model forecasts that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia, with the various model times of this absorption being between 12-36 h. The official forecast shows Fabio dissipating between 36-48 h in best agreement with the GFS model. However, the cyclone could dissipate at any time before then. Confidence in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that Emilia will absorb Fabio. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.6N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-037-051-053-055-063- 067-069-073-077-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-052240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OTSEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES OHC007-055-085-099-133-155-052240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA GEAUGA LAKE MAHONING PORTAGE TRUMBULL Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-052240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK MAC009-052240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-052240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:48:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:48:40 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Carlotta continues to struggle within hostile environmental conditions, with sea surface temperatures below 25C and significant vertical shear. The center of the tropical cyclone is fully exposed, with the remaining deep convection confined to an outer rainband in its northern quadrant. The TAFB intensity estimate was 35 kt, CIMSS ADT was 25 kt, and CIMSS AiDT was 32 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is a conservative 35 kt. Carlotta should continue to spin down as it moves over cool sea surface temperatures and remains within significant vertical shear. If current trends continue, and persistent deep convection does not redevelop, post-tropical cyclone status will occur soon. The initial motion for Carlotta is 280/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the rest of today, then should turn toward the west-southwest as Carlotta's circulation becomes increasingly shallow. This scenario is consistent with the objective aids. The forecast track for this advisory reflects a slight northward adjustment from the previous advisory and is close to the dynamical consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.7N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 20.4N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.9N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 19.3N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 052041 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

...CARLOTTA WEAKENING UNDER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.6, -127.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:35:19 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052038 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this afternoon, with the low-level center still located near the northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -80C. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 40+ kt in the southern semicircle, while the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain in the 35-40 kt range. Based on the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the ASCAT data. The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will be the survivor in its interaction with the Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and now forecasts a peak intensity of 55 kt in 36 h. After that time, although the shear is forecast to decrease, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new forecast is again an update of the previous forecast. Confidence in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around. The interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia southward for the next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as Emilia starts to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in about 48 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general motion expected for the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 7 36(43) 35(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 115W 50 X 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 44(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM FABIO... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Emilia was located near 13.6, -114.0 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 884 WTPZ35 KNHC 052037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM FABIO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 114.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 114.0 West. Emilia is moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster forward speed on Wednesday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

MD 1827 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051906Z - 052100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a triple point move east/southeast across the upper Midwest. A mix of supercells and bowing segments may support a risk for all hazards. Confidence on the exact timing of storm development is low, but the severe risk will likely require a WW. DISCUSSION...Early afternoon WV imagery showed a well-defined shortwave trough embedded within expansive zonal/northwesterly flow over the northern third of the CONUS. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a weak wave cyclone along a quasi-stationary front has become better defined. Evident in visible imagery, subtle ascent from the approaching trough and low-level convergence/WAA along the front and ahead of the low is eroding early afternoon inhibition over parts of eastern SD and western MN. A warming and very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) is supporting moderate to large buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE). Seasonably robust vertical shear is also in place ahead of the advancing trough with SPC mesoanalysis showing deep-layer values on the order of 45-50 kt. The favorable overlap of CAPE and shear will likely support organized storms with a mixed mode of supercells and bowing line segments. Initial storm development may occur as early as mid afternoon northwest of the surface low where low-level convergence is strongest and inhibition has rapidly weakened. Should this occur earlier in the day, as hinted by some CAM solutions, convection may initially be elevated with lingering surface inhibition. However, continued destabilization will likely support a transition to near-surface based with additional storm development likely through the remainder of the afternoon. Strong turning in the lowest few km near the quasi-stationary front, in combination with the supercell wind profiles, will likely support a risk for large hail. A couple of tornadoes are also possible with any well-developed supercells near the front. As storms evolve upscale along the boundary, a risk for damaging winds also appears likely.Given the increase in severe risk expected over the next few hours, a watch will likely be needed. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43779151 43209131 42679139 42339248 42779683 43319759 44279757 44989724 45129704 45089664 44709498 44179246 43779151 Read more

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 127.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 127.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 128.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.4N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.9N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.3N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA