Aggregator

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-103-179-183-191-060240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCC013-015-019-029-035-049-053-060240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-370-372-374-060240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 601 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-015-037-063-085-089-091-093-099-103-111-141-177-197-201- 060240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CARROLL DE KALB GRUNDY JO DAVIESS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE STEPHENSON WILL WINNEBAGO INC073-111-060240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER NEWTON WIC045-049-065-105-060240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 600 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE SLB TO 15 NNE RST. ..THORNTON..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 600 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-013-017-019-023-033-037-043-055-061-065-067-081-089-131- 191-195-060240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC045-055-099-109-060240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED WIC023-043-103-123-060240- Read more

MD 1833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST OREGON...FAR WESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1833 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...northern Idaho...far northeast Oregon...far western Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060018Z - 060115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Cells ongoing across portions of northern Idaho will have potential to produce instances of large hail and damaging wind. A few reports of hail 0.75-1 inch have been reported in the last hour. More discrete cells will continue to pose risk of large hail, given MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 50 kts. Clusters and linear segments will pose potential for damaging wind, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km. Overall, this threat will remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... LAT...LON 46221665 45531737 45211691 45171600 45121593 45021466 45201402 45441379 45791354 46161344 46551388 46501509 46221665 Read more

MD 1831 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 600... FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1831 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...southern Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 600... Valid 052359Z - 060100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 600 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues within WW600. Localized damaging wind threat may increase in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is currently moving southeastward across portions of southern MN. These cells have a history of producing tornadoes and large hail (up to 1.5 inches in diameter). The risk for tornadoes will continue in the short term with these cells, with MPX VAD indicating 0-3 km SRH 430 m2/s2. These cells are also producing very heavy precipitation, with the potential for evaporative cooling and strong outflow winds increasing as cells evolve into a more linear mode. Isolated damaging gusts 65-80 mph are possible. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44159340 43969414 43639410 43089325 42959244 42929213 43019192 43209171 43419155 43749161 43919173 44159340 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue into tonight across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa eastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. A few strong wind gusts remain possible across the northern Rockies, and a couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Debbie remain possible across southeast Georgia into coastal South Carolina. ...Northeast and Upper Ohio Valley... Severe thunderstorm potential has largely waned this evening as the loss of daytime heating results in boundary layer stabilization. As such, severe probabilities have been removed. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Initial supercell storms over southern MN are currently transitioning toward a more linear/bowing storm mode an a midlevel shortwave trough continues to shift east/southeast across the Upper Midwest this evening. This activity will continue to shift east/southeast along and to the cool side of a warm front draped across IA into northern IL. A 25-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet noted around 850 mb orient orthogonal to the low-level theta-e gradient will promote scale development into tonight. A short term tornado risk will persist before a transition toward more of a damaging gust risk. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening. Moderate to strong vertical shear will support strong to sporadic severe storms amid modest instability and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. A couple of the stronger, longer lived updrafts also could produce marginal hail. ...Southeast GA and Coastal SC... A couple of tornadoes remain possible overnight as Tropical Storm Debbie shifts slowly northward. See MCD 1832 for more details on this continued risk. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2024 Read more