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Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060246 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Earlier ASCAT data showed that Emilia was likely a 45 kt tropical storm around 18Z, with an exposed low-level center located just outside of and to the northeast of the convective overcast area, due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since that time, the low-level center appears to have moved toward the edge of the convective mass. However infrared satellite imagery shows that some of the cloud tops in the convective area have warmed slightly during that time. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from SAB. Recent objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 34 to 42 kt. Based on all the data and satellite imagery, the 45 kt intensity is unchanged from the previous NHC advisory. The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will be the survivor in its interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the merger is forecast to happen on Wednesday or Wednesday night. In the short term, moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over Emilia. Due to the moderate shear, only modest strengthening is forecast, and no change is made to the previous NHC peak intensity forecast of 55 kt. After Emilia absorbs Fabio in about 48 h, Emilia is forecast to move over less than 26C SSTs, which should cause weakening. Emilia is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength by day 4, and will continue to spin down after that as it moves over progressively colder water. Confidence in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around. Emilia is currently moving very slowly toward the west-southwest. A turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Tuesday, and Emilia is expected to absorb Fabio on Wednesday. After Fabio dissipates in about 48 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general motion expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Only very minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.8N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.0N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.5N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 17.5N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 19.2N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 20.2N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 21.0N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060244 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 115W 34 32 55(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 115W 50 1 43(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 115W 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 16(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060244 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 114.3W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 114.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster forward speed on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Emilia was located near 13.8, -114.3 with movement WSW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060243 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 150SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 119.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.2N 122.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:43:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:46:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:43:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:29:06 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Fabio has become better organized today with a larger area of deep convection becoming more persistent. Based on microwave data from the past 6 h, the center of Fabio appears to be located underneath the northern portion of the convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, while the latest objective intensity estimates range from 37 kt to 55 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, but that could be a bit conservative. The initial motion is now 300/16 kt. Fabio's motion should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move west-northwestward at a similar forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next 36 h or so. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Some strengthening could occur in the next 12 h or so. After that, no additional strengthening is expected as Fabio moves closer to Emilia. This forecast assumes that Fabio will be absorbed by Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night. Confidence in this forecast scenario is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that Emilia will absorb Fabio. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.3N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060242 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 9 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 1 63(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060242 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...FABIO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 109.8W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight. Slight weakening is possible by Tuesday night, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...FABIO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Fabio was located near 16.3, -109.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060241 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Remaining deep convection associated with Carlotta has been intermittent and distant from the fully exposed circulation center. This is not surprising considering that Carlotta is moving over sea surface temperatures near 24C with vertical shear near 30 kt. Initial intensity estimates ranged from the ADT's 25 kt to CIMSS SATCON's 36 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 35 kt based on the SATCON estimate. While there may be intermittent flare-ups of deep convection over the next day or so, reintensification under these environmental conditions is not likely. As a result, Carlotta has been declared a post-tropical cyclone. The remnant circulation of Carlotta should continue to spin down and the global and hi-res hurricane models open up the circulation into a trough around the middle of the week. This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 20.6N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 20.6N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 19.6N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060241 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 060237 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 6 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...CARLOTTA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 128.5W ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 128.5 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is expected to turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The weakening trend will continue, and the system is forecast to dissipate around Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued on this system. For additional information on the Post-Tropical Cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kodama

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.6, -128.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 906 WTPZ23 KNHC 060232 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 128.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

MD 1832 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 599... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Georgia and adjacent southeastern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 599... Valid 060011Z - 060215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 599 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat may increase a bit over the next couple of hours, northeast of the center of T. S. Debby. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the center of Debby drifting slowly northeastward, now across the Georgia/Florida state line. Northeast of the center of circulation, offshore east of the mouth of the Savannah River, some increase in low-level circulations associated with cellular convection has been noted over the past hour. While these circulations have continued to weaken as cells approach the coast, and to this point none have moved onshore, there appears to be a slightly greater chance that this occurs -- which could pose risk for a brief tornado(es). Greatest risk in the short term would appear to be over coastal/far southeastern South Carolina (coastal portions of Jasper/Beaufort/Charleston/Colleton Counties) in South Carolina. ..Goss.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 30968125 31338145 31768235 32208238 32618159 32858036 32417920 31767981 31138021 30968125 Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-103-179-183-191-060240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCC013-015-019-029-035-049-053-060240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-370-372-374-060240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-103-179-183-191-060240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCC013-015-019-029-035-049-053-060240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-370-372-374-060240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more