Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A shortwave trough will bring forcing for ascent into the northern and central Rockies today. Mid-level moisture above drier boundary-layer conditions will favor dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent international border area may make some progress into the northern U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream, mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region. However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon) will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer. Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more