Aggregator

...FABIO A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Aug 6 the center of Fabio was located near 16.9, -110.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 191 WTPZ21 KNHC 060845 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839 ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-060940- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-060940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC013-015-019-029-035-043-053-060840- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN JASPER AMZ256-276-330-350-352-370-372-060840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC FROM 20 TO 40 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast Thursday. ...Synopsis... Between one prominent mid-level ridge slowly shifting across and east of the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across much of the Southwest into southern Great Plains, mid-level troughing will be maintained along the western and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Within the latter regime, models suggest that a couple of notable perturbations may consolidate near and northwest of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, where a significant low may begin to evolve by Thursday night. At the same time, although some model output still various considerably from others, it appears most probable that the remnant tropical cyclone, approaching the South Carolina coast at the outset of the period, will continue a slow, generally northerly inland progression across the Carolinas. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely over much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Based on the official forecast track and intensity of Debby, which is still expected to be at tropical storm intensity as it migrates inland across eastern South Carolina, it appears that low-level shear will become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes in a sector to the north-northeast of the low-level circulation center. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, it appears that appreciable low-level buoyancy may develop where surface dew points increase through the mid 70s F+ in advance of the mid-level warm core. It seems possible that this could overspread much of the eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day Thursday, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability. ..Kerr.. 08/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of southern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain on Wednesday. Deeply mixed profiles will support downward mixing of flow aloft and sustained surface winds 15-20 mph. This will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels supporting inclusion of an Elevated risk area. ..Thornton.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more