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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

MD 1285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX PERMIAN BASIN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...TX Permian Basin into far southeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160409Z - 160545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat could persist into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is moving southeastward toward Midland late this evening. While MLCINH is increasing and the longevity of this cell is uncertain, steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z MAF sounding) will continue to support a large hail threat for as long as this storm persists, along with some potential for localized severe gusts. Farther west, elevated convection is gradually increasing across southeast NM, along the western periphery of deeper low-level moisture. This convection is possibly being aided by a subtle southern-stream vorticity maximum, and some recent CAM guidance suggests that a strong storm or two could emerge out of this developing area of convection, and move eastward with an isolated hail threat into the early overnight hours. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33440448 33740428 33880336 33110204 32440144 31810121 31570228 31990272 32310322 32530352 33440448 Read more