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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation, evolving near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period, will progress eastward across much of the Northeast by late this weekend. As this occurs, it appears that the remnants of Debby will accelerate into and northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic region on Saturday. Although the degree of interaction between these features remains unclear, significant strengthening of southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow appears possible within a plume of tropical moisture advecting northward in advance of deepening surface troughing, across the northern Mid Atlantic and Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England Saturday through Saturday night. Warm mid-levels likely will limit deep-layer instability; but low-level buoyancy, forcing for ascent and shear might become conducive to organizing low-topped convection. In the presence of mean cloud-bearing layer flow possibly on the order of 40-50+ kt, and boundary-layer dew points in the lower/mid 70s, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible if this scenario unfolds. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. But this could change in later outlooks for this coming Saturday. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 08:56:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 09:29:26 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 08:51:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 09:35:17 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060850 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 Emilia is becoming more organized overnight. The tropical storm has had a healthy burst of deep convection near the surface center with a growing central dense overcast. Some fortuitous scatterometer data showed an area of 45-50 kt of wind along the southern portion of the circulation. This combined with a TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 is the basis for increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt for this advisory. The wind radii have also been updated using the satellite surface wind data, extending the tropical-storm-force winds in the southern half of the storm. The cyclone is moving at an uncertain 255/4 kt. Emilia's track forecast is dependent on Fabio, the tropical storm to its east. The two systems are forecast to rotate around one another as they both turn generally north-northwestward to northwestward and accelerate along southwestern side of a ridge centered over the United States during the next day or so. As Emilia weakens later in the week, the shallower vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow. Only small changes have been made to the latest track forecast, and it lies on the southern side of the track guidance envelope. Models continue to show Emilia as the dominant cyclone that should survive the interaction with Fabio. Steady intensification is still forecast over the next 24 h, but the peak has been adjusted upward due to the recent strengthening trend. Emilia is now expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Later in the week, most models show Emilia and Fabio merging, though the timing is questionable. The official prediction shows Fabio being absorbed into Emilia's circulation by 48 h, similar to the most recent ECMWF model forecast. The storm will gradually weaken into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period as it moves over cooling ocean waters and into a dry and stable environment. Due to the uncertainty in the interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio, changes to the forecast could be necessary in later advisory packages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.3N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.0N 116.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 18.1N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 19.6N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 20.8N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.5N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 22.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 23.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060848 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 115W 34 76 20(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 115W 50 4 47(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 115W 64 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 46(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI