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WW 601 SEVERE TSTM IL IN WI 052250Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast this evening. A few of the stronger storms may evolve into supercells posing a risk for large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter), severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Strong to severe multicells are forecast near the Indiana and Illinois border this evening. A localized risk for hail and wind may accompany these storms. By later this evening, other storms may develop and move into western parts of the Watch and yield a threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Rockford IL to 85 miles east southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 597...WW 598...WW 599...WW 600... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BOS TO 25 NE PSF TO 40 ESE UCA. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-052340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK MAC009-052340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-052340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-103-179-183-191-052340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCC013-015-019-029-035-049-053-052340- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-370-372-374-052340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CLE TO 30 SW JHW TO 40 NNE BFD TO 30 SSW ROC TO 15 WSW ROC. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-025-051-053-055-067-069-077-097- 099-101-107-109-117-123-052340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE ONONDAGA ONTARIO OTSEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES OHC007-055-099-133-155-052340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA GEAUGA MAHONING PORTAGE TRUMBULL PAC005-015-019-023-031-033-035-039-047-053-065-073-081-083-085- Read more

WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0600 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0600 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 600 TORNADO IA MN WI 052225Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this evening with several supercells expected to evolve from the initial thunderstorm activity over southern Minnesota. A tornado risk may accompany any established and mature supercell. The risk for large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will also increase this evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster is forecast later this evening with the severe threat transitioning to mainly a wind risk, with perhaps a lingering tornado threat. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Spencer IA to 45 miles north northeast of Dubuque IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 597...WW 598...WW 599... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Smith Read more

MD 1829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...598... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...central and southern New York and northern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597...598... Valid 052059Z - 052230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597, 598 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should continue this afternoon and evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of a stationary front across New York and northern Pennsylvania this afternoon. These storms have had occasional supercell characteristics with mostly sporadic wind damage (42 knot gust at Wellsboro Airport, PA) and mostly sub-severe hail. The strongest storms will be diurnally driven with most of the threat waning near sunset which should coincide well with the 00Z expiration time. ..Bentley.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41128027 41448051 41718051 41978048 42438009 42957979 43157935 43257738 43317503 43297412 43137331 42497350 42127358 41477439 41267532 41147838 41107988 41128027 Read more

MD 1828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
Mesoscale Discussion 1828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of the northern Rockies and Northwest Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052035Z - 052230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging wind gusts and small hail. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, afternoon vis/radar imagery showed thunderstorms beginning to develop across the higher terrain of the Northwest and northern Rockies. North of the prominent subtropical ridge, a weak Pacific trough was slowly overspreading the monsoon moisture over much of the Northwest. Weak buoyancy will continue to support thunderstorm development through much of the afternoon with occasional stronger updrafts. Modest westerly flow aloft may also support a few more organized multi-cell clusters or transient supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds or small hail in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. However, limited buoyancy and the lack of more focused forcing for ascent suggests the severe threat should remain fairly isolated. Conditions will continue to be monitored, but a WW currently appears unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... LAT...LON 42111654 42281695 42861719 45361828 47521678 47641638 48231398 47101288 44501249 43501258 42421314 42141381 42061428 42111654 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more