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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:59:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 15:39:51 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051458 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this morning, with the low-level center located near the northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -85C. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have nudged upward to the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The latest global model runs continue to suggest that Emilia will be the survivor in interaction with the newly formed Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and forecasts a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h. After that time, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that this forecast is low confidence due to the possibility that Fabio might still end up as the dominant cyclone. Interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia south-southwestward to southward for the next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as Emilia start to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in about 60 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The first 96 h of the forecast track have been adjusted somewhat based on the GFS and Canadian model forecasts of the interaction between Emilia and Fabio. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 13.9N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.4N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.2N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 19.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.8N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 051456 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 29 31(60) 18(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 115W 50 X 13(13) 21(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 52(57) X(57) X(57) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 981 WTPZ35 KNHC 051456 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 114.1W ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 114.1 West. Emilia is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven