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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:37:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 09:35:10 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050835 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 A 05/0422 UTC GPM/GMI microwave pass and GOES proxy-vis imagery indicate that Daniel's structure continues deteriorating due to the disrupting dominant monsoonal flow. Despite the advantageous microwave image, it has become increasingly difficult to pinpoint the cyclone's surface circulation center. Some fluctuations in Daniel's strength are possible today while the cyclone continues its trek over warm waters and remains within a modest wind shear environment. Afterward, the cyclone should move counter-clockwise around the eastern periphery of the larger Carlotta. During that time, SHIPS statistical intensity guidance and the global models show increasing dry air entrainment, prompting the cyclone to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast agrees with the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus guidance and is similar to the previous advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, 060/10 kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through today. After that time, global and regional models indicate that Daniel will move into the eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow, resulting in a turn toward the north and northwest while spinning down to a remnant low on Tuesday and eventually opening up into a trough on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is an update to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.8N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...POORLY DEFINED DANIEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 128.7W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 128.7 West. Daniel is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...POORLY DEFINED DANIEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON ... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Daniel was located near 14.8, -128.7 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 08:34:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 09:29:14 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.7W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.7W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 129.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 251 WTPZ43 KNHC 050834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 A diminishing area of fragmented moderate convection is all that remains of Carlotta's cloud pattern this morning. The advisory's initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt and is just above the consensus of the various UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance. Carlotta should continue to spin down through the period gradually and could become a post-tropical cyclone later today if these convective trends continue. If not, the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week, which is shown explicitly in the NHC intensity forecast. Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be a little to the right of due west or 280/8 kt, and is forecast to continue moving in this general direction today. Through the remainder of the period, Carlotta should slow some in forward speed while turning toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low. Dissipation is forecast to occur during the next couple of days while the remnant low traverses cooler sea surface temperatures and moves through a dry/stable marine-layer air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.3N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 20.4N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 20.2N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 19.8N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 1 7( 8) 11(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.5W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 105SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.5W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 127.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.4N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.8N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 126.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 126.5W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 126.5 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Carlotta is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday, or could become post-tropical cyclone later today. Dissipation of the cyclone is forecast by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.2, -126.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.