Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Intermountain West Saturday morning to the southern Plains early Sunday morning. Low-level moisture advection will take place across the southern and central Plains, ahead of the approaching trough. In response, weak instability is expected to develop from southern and eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma. Forecast soundings early Sunday morning from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma suggest MUCAPE could approach 500 J/kg. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent should be enough for elevated thunderstorm development late in the period. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Intermountain West Saturday morning to the southern Plains early Sunday morning. Low-level moisture advection will take place across the southern and central Plains, ahead of the approaching trough. In response, weak instability is expected to develop from southern and eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma. Forecast soundings early Sunday morning from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma suggest MUCAPE could approach 500 J/kg. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent should be enough for elevated thunderstorm development late in the period. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Intermountain West Saturday morning to the southern Plains early Sunday morning. Low-level moisture advection will take place across the southern and central Plains, ahead of the approaching trough. In response, weak instability is expected to develop from southern and eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma. Forecast soundings early Sunday morning from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma suggest MUCAPE could approach 500 J/kg. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent should be enough for elevated thunderstorm development late in the period. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Intermountain West Saturday morning to the southern Plains early Sunday morning. Low-level moisture advection will take place across the southern and central Plains, ahead of the approaching trough. In response, weak instability is expected to develop from southern and eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma. Forecast soundings early Sunday morning from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma suggest MUCAPE could approach 500 J/kg. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent should be enough for elevated thunderstorm development late in the period. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

New York’s statewide drought watch was lifted on January 3, returning all 62 counties to normal status. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation issued a drought watch on November 18 due to below normal rainfall. Fifteen counties were in a drought warning for a time. WTEN ABC News 10 (Albany, N.Y.), Jan 3, 2025 A drought watch was declared on Nov. 18 for much of New York with 15 counties placed in a drought warning. The counties in a drought warning were New York City, including Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Rockland counties, and other counties in the Hudson Valley, such as Delaware, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Richmond, Schoharie, Sullivan, Ulster and Westchester counties. WTEN News10 ABC (Albany, N.Y.), Nov 19, 2024

New York City lifted its drought watch on January 3. Spectrum News 1 (New York City), Jan 3, 2025 New York City returned to a drought watch from a drought warning as of Monday, December 16 as recent storms eased the drought situation. Some of the water-saving measures that the city took while in a drought warning were suspending street flushing by the Sanitation Department, limiting water use in park fountains, and less washing of New York City vehicles. The drought warning was triggered when reservoir levels fell to 60% of capacity. CBS News New York, Dec 16, 2024 Mayor Eric Adams announced that New York City’s drought watch had become a drought warning and included another ten counties, covering much of the Hudson Valley. Governor Kathy Hochul declared a drought watch for the rest of the state. NYC’s reservoirs were at about 60% of their normal capacity, although they would normally be closer to 79% full at this time of year. The public was urged to conserve water voluntarily. The repair of the Delaware Aqueduct has been postponed as it requires the closure of a tunnel that typically carries about half of the city’s water supply. When repairs began in early October, the city was cut off from four major reservoirs in the Catskill Mountains. The New York Times, Nov 18, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest into interior northern California. Severe weather is not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper ridge will shift east into the Rockies later this afternoon as a strong trough advances inland along the Pacific northwest. Latest guidance suggests 120-150m, 12hr height falls will overspread this region, coincident with highly diffluent flow aloft. Very cold mid-level temperatures, and cooling/steepening lapse rates favor an increasingly buoyant profile by afternoon within the post-frontal environment. Scattered convection should develop within this environment, and the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, hence the continuation of thunder probabilities. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest into interior northern California. Severe weather is not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper ridge will shift east into the Rockies later this afternoon as a strong trough advances inland along the Pacific northwest. Latest guidance suggests 120-150m, 12hr height falls will overspread this region, coincident with highly diffluent flow aloft. Very cold mid-level temperatures, and cooling/steepening lapse rates favor an increasingly buoyant profile by afternoon within the post-frontal environment. Scattered convection should develop within this environment, and the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, hence the continuation of thunder probabilities. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest into interior northern California. Severe weather is not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper ridge will shift east into the Rockies later this afternoon as a strong trough advances inland along the Pacific northwest. Latest guidance suggests 120-150m, 12hr height falls will overspread this region, coincident with highly diffluent flow aloft. Very cold mid-level temperatures, and cooling/steepening lapse rates favor an increasingly buoyant profile by afternoon within the post-frontal environment. Scattered convection should develop within this environment, and the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, hence the continuation of thunder probabilities. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest into interior northern California. Severe weather is not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper ridge will shift east into the Rockies later this afternoon as a strong trough advances inland along the Pacific northwest. Latest guidance suggests 120-150m, 12hr height falls will overspread this region, coincident with highly diffluent flow aloft. Very cold mid-level temperatures, and cooling/steepening lapse rates favor an increasingly buoyant profile by afternoon within the post-frontal environment. Scattered convection should develop within this environment, and the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, hence the continuation of thunder probabilities. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Buoyancy, necessary for deep convection, remains shunted across the northwestern Gulf Basin. Latest lightning data depicts a few flashes about 100mi southeast of the middle TX Coast. Any thunderstorms overnight will be noted along a corridor of low-level convergence well offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Buoyancy, necessary for deep convection, remains shunted across the northwestern Gulf Basin. Latest lightning data depicts a few flashes about 100mi southeast of the middle TX Coast. Any thunderstorms overnight will be noted along a corridor of low-level convergence well offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Buoyancy, necessary for deep convection, remains shunted across the northwestern Gulf Basin. Latest lightning data depicts a few flashes about 100mi southeast of the middle TX Coast. Any thunderstorms overnight will be noted along a corridor of low-level convergence well offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/03/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 2 22:22:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 2 22:22:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more