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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the Great Basin vicinity. This feature is forecast to strengthen with time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through latter stages of the period. As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second half of the period. By early Sunday morning, this low should be crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of low-level warm advection east of the developing low. While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE. Showers are forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the advancing system. Greatest potential for some embedded lightning within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after midnight. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the Great Basin vicinity. This feature is forecast to strengthen with time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through latter stages of the period. As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second half of the period. By early Sunday morning, this low should be crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of low-level warm advection east of the developing low. While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE. Showers are forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the advancing system. Greatest potential for some embedded lightning within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after midnight. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the Great Basin vicinity. This feature is forecast to strengthen with time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through latter stages of the period. As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second half of the period. By early Sunday morning, this low should be crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of low-level warm advection east of the developing low. While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE. Showers are forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the advancing system. Greatest potential for some embedded lightning within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after midnight. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the Great Basin vicinity. This feature is forecast to strengthen with time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through latter stages of the period. As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second half of the period. By early Sunday morning, this low should be crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of low-level warm advection east of the developing low. While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE. Showers are forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the advancing system. Greatest potential for some embedded lightning within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after midnight. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the Great Basin vicinity. This feature is forecast to strengthen with time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through latter stages of the period. As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second half of the period. By early Sunday morning, this low should be crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of low-level warm advection east of the developing low. While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE. Showers are forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the advancing system. Greatest potential for some embedded lightning within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after midnight. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more