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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more