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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more