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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more