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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to progress eastward into the eastern U.S. on Monday/Day 4, as an associated cold front moves across the Atlantic Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms could develop along or ahead of the front early in the day from Florida northward into the Carolinas. From Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8, cold and dry high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental U.S., which is expected to limit thunderstorm potential in almost all areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to progress eastward into the eastern U.S. on Monday/Day 4, as an associated cold front moves across the Atlantic Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms could develop along or ahead of the front early in the day from Florida northward into the Carolinas. From Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8, cold and dry high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental U.S., which is expected to limit thunderstorm potential in almost all areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to progress eastward into the eastern U.S. on Monday/Day 4, as an associated cold front moves across the Atlantic Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms could develop along or ahead of the front early in the day from Florida northward into the Carolinas. From Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8, cold and dry high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental U.S., which is expected to limit thunderstorm potential in almost all areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to progress eastward into the eastern U.S. on Monday/Day 4, as an associated cold front moves across the Atlantic Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms could develop along or ahead of the front early in the day from Florida northward into the Carolinas. From Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8, cold and dry high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental U.S., which is expected to limit thunderstorm potential in almost all areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to progress eastward into the eastern U.S. on Monday/Day 4, as an associated cold front moves across the Atlantic Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms could develop along or ahead of the front early in the day from Florida northward into the Carolinas. From Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8, cold and dry high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental U.S., which is expected to limit thunderstorm potential in almost all areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated speed max moves into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from approximately the Mississippi-Tennessee state line southward. Weak destabilization will occur along and near the moist axis during the day. This combined with increasing low-level convergence will result in thunderstorm development during the late morning and early afternoon. In spite of weak instability, large-scale ascent will be focused, and deep-layer shear will be strong. This environment should be favorable for a severe threat starting around midday and persisting into the evening. Some model solutions suggest a linear MCS will develop. In that case, severe wind gusts would be possible along and just ahead of the stronger parts of the line. A few tornadoes could also occur with rotating cell elements within the line. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated speed max moves into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from approximately the Mississippi-Tennessee state line southward. Weak destabilization will occur along and near the moist axis during the day. This combined with increasing low-level convergence will result in thunderstorm development during the late morning and early afternoon. In spite of weak instability, large-scale ascent will be focused, and deep-layer shear will be strong. This environment should be favorable for a severe threat starting around midday and persisting into the evening. Some model solutions suggest a linear MCS will develop. In that case, severe wind gusts would be possible along and just ahead of the stronger parts of the line. A few tornadoes could also occur with rotating cell elements within the line. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated speed max moves into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from approximately the Mississippi-Tennessee state line southward. Weak destabilization will occur along and near the moist axis during the day. This combined with increasing low-level convergence will result in thunderstorm development during the late morning and early afternoon. In spite of weak instability, large-scale ascent will be focused, and deep-layer shear will be strong. This environment should be favorable for a severe threat starting around midday and persisting into the evening. Some model solutions suggest a linear MCS will develop. In that case, severe wind gusts would be possible along and just ahead of the stronger parts of the line. A few tornadoes could also occur with rotating cell elements within the line. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated speed max moves into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from approximately the Mississippi-Tennessee state line southward. Weak destabilization will occur along and near the moist axis during the day. This combined with increasing low-level convergence will result in thunderstorm development during the late morning and early afternoon. In spite of weak instability, large-scale ascent will be focused, and deep-layer shear will be strong. This environment should be favorable for a severe threat starting around midday and persisting into the evening. Some model solutions suggest a linear MCS will develop. In that case, severe wind gusts would be possible along and just ahead of the stronger parts of the line. A few tornadoes could also occur with rotating cell elements within the line. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated speed max moves into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from approximately the Mississippi-Tennessee state line southward. Weak destabilization will occur along and near the moist axis during the day. This combined with increasing low-level convergence will result in thunderstorm development during the late morning and early afternoon. In spite of weak instability, large-scale ascent will be focused, and deep-layer shear will be strong. This environment should be favorable for a severe threat starting around midday and persisting into the evening. Some model solutions suggest a linear MCS will develop. In that case, severe wind gusts would be possible along and just ahead of the stronger parts of the line. A few tornadoes could also occur with rotating cell elements within the line. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet will move into the southern Rockies/southern High Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. Strong winds are probable across much of New Mexico with lesser winds in eastern Arizona and western Texas. The strongest surface winds are expected where the mid-level jet will move overhead during the afternoon and to the immediate lee of terrain features. These winds could reach 20-25 mph with higher speeds possible locally. RH during the afternoon will fall to 10-15% with 20-25% possible in Arizona/West Texas. Some stronger winds could push farther east into the eastern Plains of New Mexico and possibly the Texas South Plains/Panhandle. However, cloud cover appears more likely here which should limit fire weather concerns on account of higher RH. A weak offshore gradient is possible in southern California towards Sunday morning. Winds appear too light where RH is forecast to be lowest. Only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet will move into the southern Rockies/southern High Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. Strong winds are probable across much of New Mexico with lesser winds in eastern Arizona and western Texas. The strongest surface winds are expected where the mid-level jet will move overhead during the afternoon and to the immediate lee of terrain features. These winds could reach 20-25 mph with higher speeds possible locally. RH during the afternoon will fall to 10-15% with 20-25% possible in Arizona/West Texas. Some stronger winds could push farther east into the eastern Plains of New Mexico and possibly the Texas South Plains/Panhandle. However, cloud cover appears more likely here which should limit fire weather concerns on account of higher RH. A weak offshore gradient is possible in southern California towards Sunday morning. Winds appear too light where RH is forecast to be lowest. Only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet will move into the southern Rockies/southern High Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. Strong winds are probable across much of New Mexico with lesser winds in eastern Arizona and western Texas. The strongest surface winds are expected where the mid-level jet will move overhead during the afternoon and to the immediate lee of terrain features. These winds could reach 20-25 mph with higher speeds possible locally. RH during the afternoon will fall to 10-15% with 20-25% possible in Arizona/West Texas. Some stronger winds could push farther east into the eastern Plains of New Mexico and possibly the Texas South Plains/Panhandle. However, cloud cover appears more likely here which should limit fire weather concerns on account of higher RH. A weak offshore gradient is possible in southern California towards Sunday morning. Winds appear too light where RH is forecast to be lowest. Only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ..Wendt.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more