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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys... A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning, with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front. A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50 to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line, suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys... A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning, with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front. A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50 to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line, suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys... A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning, with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front. A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50 to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line, suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys... A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning, with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front. A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50 to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line, suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys... A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning, with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front. A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50 to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line, suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is moving inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms were noted earlier this afternoon from southwest OR into northern CA, but this activity has weakened and updrafts are now struggling to attain heights necessary for lightning. While scattered weak convection will linger for several hours, the probability of thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is moving inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms were noted earlier this afternoon from southwest OR into northern CA, but this activity has weakened and updrafts are now struggling to attain heights necessary for lightning. While scattered weak convection will linger for several hours, the probability of thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is moving inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms were noted earlier this afternoon from southwest OR into northern CA, but this activity has weakened and updrafts are now struggling to attain heights necessary for lightning. While scattered weak convection will linger for several hours, the probability of thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is moving inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms were noted earlier this afternoon from southwest OR into northern CA, but this activity has weakened and updrafts are now struggling to attain heights necessary for lightning. While scattered weak convection will linger for several hours, the probability of thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 01/04/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 3 22:31:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 3 22:31:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more